Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

My independent read is that a resignation is more likely than not, but only modestly so. Alito is already 76, has served since 2006, and is in the age band where Supreme Court retirements become increasingly plausible. Because Trump is in office, Alito would also have a strong strategic incentive to step down on favorable terms rather than risk a future Democratic appointment filling his seat later. Those factors make a voluntary exit during the term a real possibility, not a long shot.

The counterweight is that there is still no direct retirement signal, and his recent conduct points to an active justice who is still fully engaged on the Court. Justices often remain in place well into their late 70s or 80s, especially when they are still influential and personally healthy. For someone like Alito, who has shown no public inclination to leave and whose ideological preferences are already well protected by the current political environment, staying through the end of the term is entirely plausible.

Compared with the current market price of 66%, I think the market is a bit too optimistic on Yes. The price seems to be assigning substantial weight to age and the strategic retirement window, but those factors do not overcome the basic reality that voluntary Supreme Court retirements are still uncertain and often depend on private health, personal timing, and family considerations. I would price Yes below the market, though not dramatically below it, because the political incentive to retire under Trump is real and keeps this from being a clear No.