2026: Trump's dream year?

The bull case is not fanciful because the macro backdrop is still supportive: equities have remained resilient, earnings and consumer spending have held up, and some 2026 forecasts still call for late-year strength. If the event is defined broadly as Trump ending the year with a favorable market narrative and no major collapse in momentum, that outcome remains plausible rather than remote.

The main reason to stay cautious is that a true dream year likely requires more than just a decent stock market. Democrats are still favored to take the House, Republicans do not have locked-in control of the Senate, and Trump continues to face serious legal and constitutional constraints that can blunt any sense of a decisive political or governing victory. Those factors make a clean, all-around bullish outcome materially less likely than a simple market gain year.

Compared with the current 5.5% market price, my estimate is much higher because the market seems to be treating the favorable scenario as nearly impossible despite evidence of ongoing resilience. I still think the event is clearly a minority outcome, but not a near-zero one, because a combination of decent markets and a better-than-expected political showing is very much within the range of plausible 2026 outcomes.