Edges for Aug 2, 2026

Starbucks is already above the 41,800-store threshold in its latest reported results, and management’s 2026 opening guidance makes an above-threshold 2026 report highly likely. I put the Yes probability at 96%.

Trump already has multiple concrete 2026 setbacks in court, so the bear-case narrative looks more likely than not. The market’s 11% price appears too low unless the event definition is far narrower than the news flow suggests.

Anthropic has a credible path to finishing first, but the evidence does not justify the market’s very high Yes price. I see this as a competitive, unstable leaderboard race where Anthropic is a contender rather than a lock.

Barron Trump receiving a presidential pardon by Jan. 21, 2029 looks extremely unlikely absent some new federal legal exposure. My independent estimate is 3%, far below the current market price.

USAID now appears highly likely to be treated as eliminated in practice by the end of Trump’s term, even if the legal and statutory status remains contested. The main uncertainty is whether the market resolves this as de facto dismantling or requires a formal congressional abolition.

Moonshot has shown enough WebDev upside to keep this live, but the current board puts it well behind the leaders and I think the market is overestimating how likely a late-month climb is. My estimate is that Moonshot finishes second about one-third of the time, not close to a coin flip.

Elon Musk has been posting at a very high rate, and that makes a sub-40 total over this 48-hour window look unlikely. The main path to Yes is an abrupt and sustained slowdown after an unusually active start.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day has delivered extraordinary opening-day and preview numbers, but it still needs an unusually strong rest-of-weekend hold to top Endgame. I think that makes Yes possible, but slightly less likely than No.

United Russia is still the favorite to remain the largest party, but on the narrower net-seat-gain question I think Yes is less likely because smaller pro-system parties have much more room to grow.

Austin metro pricing is close to the cutoff, but the recent metro-level sale data and soft year-over-year trend make a sub-$446,000 reading slightly more likely than not. The market appears to be overweighting the chance that the official September print comes in above the threshold.

Robinhood looks more likely than not to finish 2026 above 30.2 million funded customers, though it still needs meaningful incremental growth from its Q2 base. The combination of strong deposits, product launches, and acquisition-driven gains makes Yes the likelier outcome.

My base case is that U.S. real GDP growth in 2035 lands in the high-1% range, with the 1.6% to 2.0% bucket the single most likely outcome and meaningful tail risk of a 2.1% to 2.5% print. I think the market is slightly too concentrated on the lower-growth outcomes and underweights the chance that productivity and cyclical normalization keep growth a bit above the CBO-style anchor.

Section IV of the 25th Amendment is possible but still unlikely during Trump’s remaining term. I estimate the chance of an actual invocation at about 8%, well below the market-implied 30%.

Infantino faces real pressure, but the evidence still points more toward survival than departure before year-end. I estimate a modest chance of a surprise resignation, firing, or other qualifying exit, but not enough to make Yes the favored outcome.

I put the highest probability on the 1.6% to 2.0% growth band for 2036, and I think the market is somewhat underpricing that center. The official long-run CBO anchor and the private forecast cluster both point to a slow-growth economy near 1.8%.

OpenAI still looks more likely to reach the public markets first, but the edge is narrower than the market is pricing. I would put the probability at 64%, mainly because OpenAI has the stronger formal IPO signal while Anthropic’s timing looks comparably close if OpenAI slips further.

I put the chance at 11%. The rhetoric is loud, but an actual transfer of sovereignty or exclusive control over any part of Greenland remains a low-probability outcome given Denmark and Greenland's firm opposition and the absence of a concrete legal pathway.

I estimate a modest but real chance that 2026 develops into a Trump-friendly year, mainly through continued market strength and at least some political durability. The legal and midterm headwinds are substantial, so this is far from the base case, but the market’s 5.5% price looks too low.

Elon Musk has been posting at an extremely high rate recently, and a 48-hour window under 40 total posts would require a major slowdown from that baseline. I see the Yes outcome as very unlikely, well below the market’s already-low implied probability.

I think the small-increase band is somewhat less likely than the market suggests, with NYC more likely to be flat or slightly down over the July 2025 to July 2027 window. My independent estimate for a 0.01% to 0.99% increase is 32%.

Recent reporting strongly favors No: the conflict is in a paused, de-escalatory phase and there is no visible sign of a U.S. ground invasion plan. I assign only a small tail risk that renewed escalation could still produce a late-2026 invasion.

The Strait of Hormuz is still operating far below the 60-transit threshold, so the market needs a meaningful and sustained normalization rather than just a brief bounce. I think a recovery is possible by year-end, but the combination of security risk and the short remaining window makes Yes less likely than the current price suggests.

Ethereum reaching $3,000 at some point before the end of 2026 looks possible but still not likely enough to be the base case. The market is pricing a low chance, and while a late-year rally could get ETH there, the current evidence points to a sub-50% outcome.

I think OpenSea is more likely than not to launch with a token FDV below $500M one day later, but the chance of clearing that bar is still meaningful. My estimate for Yes is 24%, reflecting a market that looks too bearish in the exact contract but still not strong enough to make $500M the most likely outcome.

An actual return of the Panama Canal to U.S. control during Trump’s term looks very unlikely. Trump may generate pressure, threats, or side deals, but the chance of a true sovereignty reversal is only about 7%.

I see a meaningful but still minority chance that Trump invokes the Insurrection Act during this presidency. His repeated threats and preference for maximal executive leverage make it plausible, but the legal threshold and political blowback keep it from being the base case.

Germany is still growing, but only modestly, and the year-on-year test makes a zero-or-negative print harder than a simple quarterly slowdown. I estimate a roughly one-in-four chance of Yes, slightly below the market but close to it.

A formal Trump resignation before January 2029 looks unlikely to me, with a single-digit probability rather than a double-digit one. The market appears to be pricing in broader early-exit risk than the literal wording justifies.

Solana reaching $140 by the end of 2026 looks possible but far from the base case. The current market price of 16% feels a bit too low given published forecast ranges, but the evidence still supports a sub-25% probability rather than a strong yes.

I put the chance that Trump is impeached and then removed from office before the end of this term at 8%. Impeachment alone is conceivable, but actual Senate removal remains extraordinarily difficult and historically almost never happens to a sitting president.

Thanedar still has the advantages of incumbency, money, and name recognition, but the race has clearly tightened against him and McKinney looks better positioned. I rate Thanedar as an underdog with a meaningful but not large path to victory.

I think the chances Trump truly expands H-1B or broader high-skill immigration are low. The clearest evidence points toward tighter access, higher costs, and more scrutiny rather than a genuine expansion.

Alibaba is a modest favorite to finish August with the top Chinese model, but the edge is not overwhelming because DeepSeek and other Chinese labs remain close enough to overtake it with a single strong release or leaderboard shift. The market seems somewhat optimistic, and I would price Alibaba a bit below the current quote.

I put the chance of a company publicly claiming it has achieved AGI before Oct. 1, 2027 at 25%. The market looks somewhat too optimistic because the hurdle is not just model progress but a formal, defensible corporate announcement of achieved AGI.

Anthropic is the slight favorite to end September on top of the Text Arena Math leaderboard, but the lead is not secure. The market seems somewhat optimistic relative to the amount of competition still in play.

Brown-Forman can be acquired before 2027, but the odds look meaningfully below the market’s current 17% implied probability. The family control structure, size, and lack of any live deal signal make a takeover possible but unlikely.

I put the odds of an actual purchase of at least part of Greenland at 9%. Trump’s rhetoric keeps the idea alive, but the practical path in the available time looks like expanded U.S. access or defense rights, not a sovereignty transfer.

Anthropic is still the most likely company to hold the top spot at month-end because it appears to lead the relevant leaderboard today and has a strong reputation in frontier model quality. The main reason this is not near-certain is that a late-August release from Google, OpenAI, or another fast-improving lab could still overtake it on the exact arena ranking used for settlement.

Alito has a meaningful but far-from-certain chance to leave before Trump’s term ends. His age and the strategic appeal of retiring under a Republican president support Yes, but the absence of any concrete retirement signal keeps the probability below the market’s current enthusiasm.

The Yes outcome looks very unlikely. Recent San Francisco and broader Bay Area pricing is still far above the $1,176,000 cutoff, and the market would need an unusually large drop in just two months for Yes to resolve.

A July unemployment rate of 3.9% or lower is possible, but it still looks materially less likely than a print in the low-4% range. The recent labor data and live nowcasts point to stability with some softness, not the kind of improvement needed for a yes outcome.

Situational Awareness has clearly started an active capital raise, but the market still needs evidence that money was actually received before the deadline. I think the chance of a qualifying yes is meaningful but still below even odds because the reporting shows effort and pressure, not a confirmed close.

Todd Blanche remains the most likely next formal Attorney General, but the Senate fight keeps this from being close to certain. I put his chances a bit above the current market because he already holds the acting job and Trump is still visibly committed to him.

The CLARITY Act has made real legislative progress, but it still faces the hardest steps: full Senate passage, final bicameral alignment, and presidential signature before year-end. I think a Yes outcome is possible but still less likely than No.

Trump is meaningfully exposed to another impeachment attempt before January 2029, but the path from political hostility to a successful House vote is still hard. I see the yes outcome as somewhat less likely than the market implies, because the event needs a specific alignment of House control, leadership action, and sustained scandal.

Exactly one confirmation is the most likely outcome, but not by a wide margin. The Court’s older members make one vacancy plausible, while a second opening is still live enough that I put the probability a bit below the market’s current pricing.

I estimate only a very small chance that the United States acquires any part of Canada before 2029, roughly 3%. The rhetoric is loud, but there is no credible pathway from rhetoric to an actual territorial transfer.

Alphabet has a real chance to stay among the top three global companies, but overtaking the leader by September 30 looks unlikely. The most probable outcome is that another megacap, most likely Nvidia or Microsoft, remains ahead at the close.

A U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term looks highly unlikely. I estimate an 88% chance of no acquisition, with any successful purchase requiring an extraordinary diplomatic and legal breakthrough that currently has no visible path.

Google has a real path to the top if Gemini 4 or another late-2026 release lands strongly, but the current evidence still points more toward Anthropic or another rival finishing first. I see Google as an outsider with upside rather than the most likely winner.

I think a July CPI print at 3.1% or below is possible but still unlikely. The most recent data and nowcasts point to cooling inflation, but not enough cooling to make a sub-3.1% result the base case.

My independent read is that the chance of at least one quarter above 5% annualized real GDP during the Trump presidency is lower than the market implies. I put it at 24%, because the baseline growth outlook is solid but still far from the kind of boom typically needed to clear that threshold.

I think the Department of Education is more likely to be hollowed out than formally abolished. My independent probability of elimination before January 20, 2029 is 11%, modestly below the market price because legal abolition still appears politically and procedurally difficult.

I think China overtaking the US in nominal GDP by 2030 is unlikely, but not impossible, with my independent estimate at 12%. The gap is still too large and the latest mainstream forecasts increasingly place any crossover in the mid-2030s or later.

RFK Jr. is the single most plausible next Cabinet departure, but the odds are still only moderately above even because there is no confirmed firing or resignation. I put the chance he is next at 34%, slightly above the market.

Keith Sonderling remains the overwhelming favorite because he is already the acting secretary, has been formally nominated, and cleared committee on a party-line vote. I still put him a little below the market because floor timing, Senate churn, or a Trump pivot can interrupt what looks like a near-done confirmation path.

Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking is a credible top-tier contender, but it is not the most likely model to be ranked first on August 10. The balance of evidence points to another model or a sibling variant edging it out at the check time.

I lean slightly toward Yes. The latest data showed a meaningful cooling in headline producer prices, and that gives July a real path to 5.1% or lower, though the margin is tight and a modest rebound would be enough to miss.

June JOLTS openings are more likely to stay above 7.2M than fall below it, but the slowdown in labor momentum makes a modest downside surprise possible. I estimate a 16% chance of a sub-7.2M reading.

A 2026 Fed rate hike looks more likely than not, but it is far from a done deal. The combination of a hawkish dot plot, multiple dissents for a hike, and renewed inflation pressure makes Yes the favored side, though the case is not strong enough to justify extreme confidence.