Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Anthropic looks more likely to IPO before OpenAI, mainly because it filed earlier and its reported late-2026 path still appears more intact than OpenAI’s. I think the market is a bit too confident, but not dramatically so.
Analysis
The clearest signal is timing: Anthropic confidentially filed on June 1, 2026, while OpenAI filed on June 8, 2026. That ordering does not guarantee the eventual listing order, but it does matter because Anthropic also continues to be described as tracking toward a late-2026 debut, which gives it a shorter and better-supported runway to go public first.
OpenAI’s situation looks more fragile. Recent reporting suggests it is increasingly considering a delay into 2027, and its timeline appears more exposed to valuation ambitions, market-window concerns, and the risk of a difficult reception from public investors. A confidential filing is only the first step in the process, so OpenAI still has plenty of time to move faster, but the current direction of travel is not especially favorable for it beating Anthropic.
The market’s 84% price for Yes is directionally understandable, but I would not treat the edge as quite that large. Anthropic does appear more likely to win the race, yet the gap is still vulnerable to a sudden OpenAI acceleration or an Anthropic delay, and those risks keep this from being a near-lock. On balance, the right number is high, but somewhat below the market because the lead is real without being decisive.
Arguments
For
- Anthropic confidentially filed a week earlier and remains the company more consistently tied to a late-2026 listing.
- OpenAI has recently been reported to be leaning toward a 2027 delay, which directly hurts its chances of winning the race.
Against
- Neither company has announced a firm IPO date, so a confident timing call still rests on incomplete information.
- A reopened IPO window could allow OpenAI to compress its schedule and overtake Anthropic.
Key drivers
- Anthropic filed earlier and still appears to have the cleaner late-2026 IPO path.
- OpenAI’s reported drift toward 2027 materially weakens its odds of being first.
- Confidential filings leave plenty of room for schedule changes, so the race is not settled.
Risk factors
- OpenAI could still accelerate if market conditions improve or strategic pressure increases.
- Anthropic could slip if valuation, regulatory, or market-reception concerns intensify.
Scenarios
Best case
Anthropic stays on its late-2026 track and completes its listing before OpenAI, while OpenAI waits until 2027 or later.
Most likely
Anthropic reaches the public market first, probably by a modest margin, with OpenAI trailing into 2027 or later.
Worst case
OpenAI finds a favorable market window and lists first, or Anthropic slips enough that OpenAI overtakes it.
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