Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

The central issue is not whether traffic has improved from the worst point, but whether it can rise all the way back to a seven-day moving average of at least 60 transits before the deadline. The recent reporting suggests a partial rebound from single-digit activity, yet the best available figures still sit well below the pre-crisis benchmark of roughly 88 daily commercial transits, and some recent counts remain in the 30s or even lower. That gap is large enough that the market would need a sustained and fairly fast normalization, not just a modest improvement, to resolve Yes.

The operational signals remain notably weak for the vessel classes that matter most. Tanker and LNG movements appear especially constrained, with reports of zero tanker crossings on some days, continued force majeure language from a major LNG exporter, and broader descriptions of the strait as effectively disrupted rather than fully restored. Because the resolution condition is based on a seven-day moving average, a one-off burst of transits would not be enough; the data would need multiple consecutive days of elevated flow, which is harder to achieve while shippers, insurers, and state actors are still acting cautiously.

From a market perspective, the current price near 22.5% implies some belief that de-escalation and escort activity could quickly lift traffic. That is not impossible, especially if security conditions stabilize and carriers rapidly resume routes, but the available evidence still favors a slower recovery path. September 30 is close enough that even a meaningful rebound may not have enough time to push the rolling average over 60 unless the normalization starts soon and broadens across containers, dry bulk, general cargo, and especially tankers.

The main reason to keep some probability on Yes is that shipping flows can recover faster than headlines suggest once risk premiums drop and escort or security arrangements reduce the perceived danger. Still, the present data look more like an incomplete repair than a return to normal, and the market would need a sharp step-up from already improved levels to clear the threshold. On balance, the most likely outcome is continued disruption with traffic improving but not fully normalizing by the cutoff.