Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

The core issue is that this market requires two separate events: House impeachment and Senate removal. House impeachment is politically possible if conditions deteriorate enough, but removal is much harder because it needs a two-thirds Senate vote. With Trump already having survived two impeachments without conviction, the historical base rate strongly argues that even a serious controversy is more likely to end in stalemate, resignation pressure, or electoral consequences than in actual removal from office.

The remaining time horizon matters, because there is still ample opportunity for a scandal, legal development, or midterm shift to create an impeachment push. That said, the current environment described here is not one of broad institutional momentum. Republican control of Congress is a major buffer, and even if control changes, the Senate math for conviction remains brutal. The most plausible path to a Yes outcome would require an unusually severe event that produces bipartisan defections far beyond what is typical in modern impeachment politics.

Against the market’s 16% price, my estimate is materially lower. A 16% probability implies roughly a one-in-six chance of both impeachment and removal, which feels too high given that removal has never happened to a president and that even impeachment itself is still a high-bar, high-partisanship event. The market may be overweighting the possibility of a future political crisis or confusing impeachment risk with removal risk; those are related but very different probabilities, and the combined outcome should be far rarer than impeachment alone.