Edges for Aug 4, 2026

Starbucks looks likely to finish 2026 above 41,800 stores. The company’s reported Q3 base of 41,304 and full-year guidance for 600 to 650 net new coffeehouses leave a meaningful cushion over the threshold.

Trump looks materially more likely than not to have a genuinely adverse 2026, with legal exposure, court fights, and internal political resistance creating several paths to a bad year. The market’s 11% yes price looks far too low unless the event is defined very narrowly.

I estimate OpenAI has only about a 30% chance of beating Anthropic to the IPO. Anthropic’s reported late-2026 target and OpenAI’s apparent drift toward 2027 make Anthropic the likelier first mover.

I think the chance Samuel Alito resigns during Trump’s term is materially lower than the market implies. He is old enough that retirement is plausible, but there is still no concrete sign he is preparing to leave, and the Supreme Court’s incentives favor staying unless a clean transition is clearly available.

My assessment is that a Barron Trump pardon is unlikely absent a new legal development. The market looks far too high given there is no known criminal exposure or pending case to justify a pardon.

USAID looks eliminated in practical terms already, with its programs, staffing, and functions largely absorbed into the State Department. The main uncertainty is whether the market settles on de facto shutdown or insists on a formal legal abolition, which keeps the probability below a near-certain level.

Anthropic has a real chance to finish first, but the current price looks too confident for a leaderboard that can change quickly. I see a modest edge for Yes rather than the near-certainty implied by the market.

I think there is a meaningful but still far from dominant chance that Trump gets enough favorable developments in 2026 to justify the bull-case label. My independent probability is well above the market because several different paths to a positive 2026 remain open, even if none is assured.

DTF St. Louis looks more likely than not to finish with at most one Primetime Emmy win, mainly because several of its best opportunities have been moved out of the televised ceremony. Still, the show remains strong enough that a second win is a real possibility, so this is not close to a lock.

I assign a low single-digit to high-single-digit chance that Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is formally used during this presidency. The constitutional bar is so high, and the political incentives are so strong against invoking it, that the most likely outcome is still no.

Squid only needs a modest post-launch move to clear $50M FDV, so Yes is more likely than not. Still, the current market looks a bit too confident because the best anchor we have is a $45M sale-implied FDV, not a guaranteed day-one rally.

I think a return to a 7-day average of 60 or more is possible but more likely than not to miss by year-end. The current traffic level is far below the threshold, and the market seems somewhat optimistic relative to how much normalization would still be required.

My independent estimate is that Trump has a meaningful but not dominant chance of being impeached again before Jan. 20, 2029. I put the probability at 45%, below the current market price because rhetoric and proposals are not the same as a House impeachment.

I think there is only a very small chance Trump actually takes back the Panama Canal in the literal sense of restoring U.S. control over it. The most likely outcome is continued pressure, rhetoric, and possibly concessions around ports or security, not a sovereignty transfer.

I put the chance of the United States actually acquiring any part of Greenland before 2029 at 9%. The political attention is real, but a genuine transfer of territory or sovereignty remains highly unlikely.

I put the chance that Trump resigns before the end of his term at 4%. The event is possible only through an unusual combination of legal, political, or health stress, and there is no public sign of a resignation path developing now.

I put the highest probability on 1.6% to 2.0%, with 2.1% to 2.5% as the main alternative. The market looks too generous to the 6.1%+ tail and somewhat too cautious about a low-2% outcome.

I think the U.S. almost certainly will not acquire Greenland during Trump’s term. The most realistic outcome is continued rhetoric and strategic cooperation, not a sovereignty transfer, so I put no-acquisition at 95%.

NVIDIA is a meaningful favorite to finish August as the largest company, but the lead is not secure enough to justify extreme confidence. The race still looks volatile enough that a late-month Apple reclaim or a sharp NVIDIA pullback could flip the outcome.

I estimate a moderate chance, around 35%, that Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before the end of his presidency. The odds are meaningfully above the current market price because there are several plausible trigger scenarios and a long remaining time window, but the event still requires a high political and operational threshold.

Anthropic looks like the front-runner for the LiveBench Coding leaderboard at the end of August, but the market may be overestimating how secure that lead is. I would still lean Yes, though with meaningful downside from strong competitors and late-month leaderboard changes.

I put Elon Musk’s chance of visiting Mars before 2099 at 24%. The market looks too skeptical for a question with such a long runway, but this is still far from a sure thing because it depends on both major technical success and Musk personally choosing to take a very high-risk trip.

Infantino faces real political pressure, but the bar for being out by December 31 is still high because FIFA removal is procedurally difficult and he remains backed by important blocs. I think the most likely outcome is that he survives through year-end, making Yes a minority outcome.

Trump’s rhetoric keeps the idea alive, but an actual purchase of Greenland or even part of it remains a very long shot. I put the chance at 7%, well below the current market price, because the main realistic path is still a defense arrangement rather than a territorial sale.

Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is still far below the level needed to clear this market, and the recent trend has not shown a durable return to normal commercial routing. A rapid jump to a 7-day moving average of 60 or more by September 30 looks possible only if the security situation improves sharply, so I assign a low-to-moderate chance of Yes.

Trump being impeached and then removed from office before the end of his term looks unlikely. I put the chance at 7%, driven by the low historical rate of presidential removal and the steep Senate supermajority barrier.

RFK Jr. looks like the most plausible single cabinet member to be pushed out next, but the evidence still points more to elevated risk than to an imminent dismissal. I rate his chance meaningfully above the market because the replacement chatter is specific and credible, even though it is not yet confirmed action.

Ethereum reaching $3,000 by year-end 2026 looks possible but still more likely than the market price implies only if the next few months bring a strong risk-on crypto move. My estimate is below one-in-three, but meaningfully above the current market price because a touch of $3,000 is not an extreme outcome if ETF flows, macro conditions, and crypto sentiment all improve together.

Alibaba looks like the favorite because its new Qwen3.8-Max has just moved to or near the top of Chinese-model rankings on the relevant arena leaderboard. The main question is whether competitors can narrow the gap or overtake it before the month-end check.

I think the under-40 outcome is unlikely because Musk’s recent posting pace has been extremely high and the window still has substantial time left. The main path to Yes is a sharp slowdown after an active start, which seems possible but not the most likely result.

I put the chance of at least one quarter topping 5% annualized GDP growth during 2025-2028 at 19%. The policy mix and current forecasts point to steady but not explosive growth, and 5% quarters are rare without a recession-driven snapback.

Robinhood has a better-than-even chance of finishing 2026 above 30.2 million funded customers, mainly because Q2 showed a sharp acceleration from already large scale. I price it slightly above the market, but not by a wide margin.

I see a modestly greater-than-even chance that the Fed leaves rates unchanged at the December 2027 meeting, but not as high as the market’s 71% implies. The most likely alternative is some policy move earlier in the cycle that leaves this specific meeting as a pause, though the long horizon makes a hike or cut meaningfully plausible.

Anthropic is the current leader on the relevant arena math leaderboard, which gives it a strong starting position for end-of-month resolution. Still, the market is not locked in, and a late-August model release or re-ranking could easily change the top spot before settlement.

Anthropic looks like the strongest single bet to finish August with the top-ranked model, but the price is a bit too high given how quickly these leaderboards can move in a one-month window. I still think Yes is much more likely than No, just not quite as close to certain as the market implies.

claude-opus-4-6-thinking has a real but limited chance to remain the top model on August 10. It is close enough to the frontier that a narrow lead is possible, but the weight of recent ranking signals points to newer Anthropic models overtaking it before the check date.

Moonshot has a real path to finishing in third, but the leaderboard is competitive enough that the exact third-place slot looks less likely than the market price implies. I estimate about a 27% chance that Moonshot is the third-best WebDev lab at the August 31 check.

Trump has a strong existing relationship with Netanyahu and has already been publicly positive toward him around the start of the month, which makes another qualifying praise statement in August somewhat more likely than not. The main uncertainty is whether Trump will make an explicit enough comment during the August window, so this is not a high-confidence yes.

Todd Blanche is the clear favorite and remains the most likely resolution by a wide margin. I think the market is a bit too confident, but only slightly; his probability is still very high because he already holds the acting role and is tightly aligned with Trump.

My independent view is that U.S. real GDP growth in 2035 is most likely to sit in the 1.6% to 2.5% range, with a mild tilt toward 2.1% to 2.5%. I see materially less probability on outright stagnation or recession than the market’s current setup suggests.

I think China overtaking the US in nominal GDP by 2030 is unlikely, with a probability around 11%. The gap is still too large, and the remaining time is too short for China to close it without an unusually strong growth surprise or a US downturn.

MrBeast is still one of the few creators who can regularly clear enormous first-day view counts, so the default outcome is above 20 million. Still, there is a small but real path to a softer launch if the video is less broadly appealing than his biggest event uploads.

I think there is only a small chance that July annual CPI lands at 3.1% or lower. The most likely outcome is a print still modestly above the threshold, though softer energy prices could keep the miss from being huge.

A Cabinet impeachment before January 2027 is still unlikely, but not nearly as close to impossible as the market suggests. The new Hegseth articles show a real procedural pathway, so I put the chance at 12%.

I put the chance of the Department of Education being formally eliminated before Jan. 20, 2029 at 11%. The administration can keep weakening and reallocating functions, but full abolition still looks politically and procedurally difficult.

NVIDIA is clearly in the elite group of the world’s largest companies, but being exactly second-largest on August 31 is a narrow and fragile rank outcome. I think the market is underpricing the chance a bit, yet the more likely result is that NVIDIA ends the month either first or third rather than precisely second.

I think Trump is more likely to restrict than expand high-skill immigration, so the Yes side is weak. A limited expansion is still possible over a long horizon, but it looks like a minority outcome.

My independent estimate is that a recession in 2027 is somewhat less likely than the market implies, at about 34%. The balance of current evidence still points to slow growth more often than outright contraction, though geopolitical and inflation shocks keep the downside meaningful.

NYC is more likely than not to end the period near flat, with a slight tilt toward a small decline over a 0.01% to 0.99% gain. I think the market is a bit too optimistic on the odds of landing in that narrow positive band.

The no-cut outcome looks more likely than not, because the Fed has already stayed on hold through midyear and recent messaging still centers on inflation risk rather than recession risk. Even so, there is meaningful late-year downside if growth weakens or inflation cools enough to justify one 25 bp cut.

The Strait of Hormuz is still operating well below the threshold needed for a Yes, and the 7-day average would need a rapid, sustained rebound to reach 60 by August 31. I think the market is somewhat optimistic, so I put Yes at 14%.

A 2026 Fed rate hike looks slightly more likely than not, driven by the July hawkish dissent and a more restrictive policy signal from the Fed’s updated projections. Still, the outcome is far from locked in because the committee could easily stay on hold if inflation cools or growth softens later in the year.

NVIDIA has a clear edge because it already appears to be the largest company and still sits at the center of the AI spending cycle. The main reason to hesitate is that the lead is not enormous relative to a few months of volatility, and Microsoft or an Nvidia pullback could still change the ranking by year-end.

Alphabet has a real but limited path to finishing first because it is already valued at an enormous scale and near record territory. Still, it must outperform several other mega-caps over a short window, so I think the more likely outcome is that it remains close to the top but not necessarily number one.