Heisman Trophy Winner
Leaning No: Smith still has elite numbers, but the team context is now working against him. The market’s 26% looks a bit high given Ohio State’s losses and the quarterback uncertainty.
Analysis
November 10: NBC Sports listed Smith third at +410 behind C.J. Carr and Darian Mensah. Ohio State’s two straight losses and Julian Sayin’s injury have made team success the biggest obstacle.
Smith’s raw stats remain strong, with 1,200 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns, but Heisman voters usually reward players from better team situations. He still has a path through massive late production, yet it is narrower than the market price implies.
Arguments
For
- Smith remains among the nation’s best receivers statistically.
- A few huge games could still swing attention back to him.
Against
- Quarterback injury lowers the chance of headline-producing performances.
- Team losses make a wide receiver Heisman path harder.
Key drivers
- Ohio State’s remaining wins and postseason access
- Smith’s production with Luke Fahey at quarterback
Risk factors
- Another Ohio State loss reduces voter momentum
- Carr or Mensah keeps posting stronger Heisman-style weeks
Scenarios
Best case
If Smith dominates Northwestern and Michigan, Yes rises to about 32%.
Most likely
Most likely Smith finishes elite but short, with Yes around 23%.
Worst case
If Ohio State keeps losing before year-end, Yes falls to about 15%.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | 24% | 26% |
| CJ Carr | 31% | 26% |
| Darian Mensah | 29% | 26% |
| Devon Dampier | 8% | 7% |
| Drew Mestemaker | 8% | 6% |
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