US gas prices this week
Leaning No: the latest official AAA reading is still above $3.80, but the drop is fast and the threshold is close. The market’s 94% Yes price looks too high given the recent weekly pace.
Analysis
That pace matters because only about 21 cents separate the latest AAA figure from the cutoff. GasBuddy’s lower estimate and its $3.75 Thanksgiving view both point toward a break below the threshold.
Arguments
For
- AAA’s Nov. 9 figure remains $0.2093 above the cutoff.
- The market resolves only on strict AAA national average data.
Against
- AAA fell about 16 cents in one week.
- GasBuddy’s national average and forecast both point below $3.80.
Key drivers
- AAA trend is falling quickly toward the cutoff.
- The November 16 resolution uses AAA’s national average only.
Risk factors
- A slowdown in crude-driven declines could keep prices above $3.80.
- AAA’s latest official reading is still above the threshold.
Scenarios
Best case
If the downward trend slows this week, Yes rises to about 92%.
Most likely
Most likely AAA ends near the threshold or slightly below, with Yes around 86%.
Worst case
If AAA falls toward $3.75 by Nov. 16, Yes falls to about 20%.
More from this day
- economyPolymarket7mo
Swiss National Bank Decision in June?
AI2%MKT17%Edge-15HypedSlight lean to No: the SNB’s policy rate is already 0.00%, and the latest October CPI rose to 1.5% year over year, which makes a 50+ bp cut by June 2027 look very unlikely.
- politicsPolymarket16d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by...?
AI31%MKT19%Edge+12UndervaluedLeaning Yes: the market is probably a bit too low given the Nov. 9 impeachment push and the possibility Trump acts on the private replacement chatter. The main reason is that Hegseth faces real near-term pressure, even though he still has Trump’s public backing.
- pop culturePolymarket7mo
Grammys 2027: Album of the Year Winner
AI52%MKT42%Edge+10UndervaluedLeaning Yes: Olivia Rodrigo looks like an early frontrunner, with strong commercial numbers and fresh industry chatter pointing to a serious Album of the Year run. The most important near-term test is the November 16, 2026 nomination list, where this album is widely expected to appear.