How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
Leaning No: the latest settlement is $86.85, and de-escalation plus surplus-supply reports weigh on prices. The market’s 13.3% Yes looks a bit high unless a major disruption hits.
Analysis
November 9, 2026: WTI settled at $86.85, down sharply on easing U.S.-Iran war fears. That leaves oil far below the $115.01 trigger with limited near-term momentum.
Reported fundamentals are bearish, with JPMorgan citing roughly 1.1 million bpd of excess supply. The main Yes path is a sudden geopolitical shock that disrupts Gulf production or shipping.
Arguments
For
- Middle East shipping and production risks are still unresolved.
- Oil can jump quickly on war or outage headlines.
Against
- WTI is already near $86.85, far from $115.01.
- Recent news points to easing conflict and surplus supply.
Key drivers
- Current price is far below the trigger.
- Geopolitical escalation remains the main upside path.
Risk factors
- A Strait of Hormuz disruption could cause a rapid spike.
- Unexpected supply outages or sanctions could tighten balances.
Scenarios
Best case
If Middle East disruptions intensify this month, Yes rises to about 30%.
Most likely
Most likely WTI stays under $100, with Yes around 10%.
Worst case
If talks reduce tensions and supply stays loose, Yes falls to about 5%.
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