When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Leaning No: the freshest shipping reports still show traffic far under the 60-call threshold. That supports a lower Yes probability than the 7.3% market price.
Analysis
November 10 reports still show Strait of Hormuz traffic far below normal, with UKMTO calling it about 65% under pre-conflict levels. That is the freshest and most relevant evidence for the PortWatch threshold.
Some cargo categories improved, but independent tracking still shows only low daily transits and a large backlog offshore. Nothing in the latest data suggests the IMF PortWatch 7-day average is close to 60 yet.
Arguments
For
- Monthly LNG and refined-product flows have improved recently.
- There is still nearly seven weeks for traffic to recover.
Against
- Recent weekly and daily counts remain far under the threshold.
- Backlog near Fujairah and Khor Fakkan suggests normalization has not occurred.
Key drivers
- Latest transit counts remain far below normal.
- Time is still available, but recovery needs to accelerate sharply.
Risk factors
- AIS undercounting could hide some recovered traffic.
- A sudden reopening or rerouting could push counts higher quickly.
Scenarios
Best case
If PortWatch weekly counts surge above normal this month, Yes rises to about 15%.
Most likely
Most likely traffic improves gradually but stays below 60, with Yes around 4%.
Worst case
If transits stay near current levels through December, Yes falls to about 1%.
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