CPI in October
Slight lean to Yes: every published estimate sits above the 0.1% threshold, with most around 0.3%. The market is already near-certain, and only an unusually weak print would flip it.
Analysis
November 10, 2026 release is pending at 8:30 a.m. ET, and every mainstream estimate is above 0.1%. Reuters, Dow Jones, and Bloomberg all center on 0.3%, making a sub-0.1% print the main risk.
Gasoline fell through October, which could soften headline CPI, but goods-price data and the broader macro backdrop still point to a positive monthly increase. The market price already reflects this, so the edge is tiny.
Arguments
For
- Published estimates overwhelmingly expect CPI above the threshold.
- Even the lower private estimate still expects 0.2%.
Against
- Gasoline prices declined meaningfully during October.
- Current price already implies near-certain Yes resolution.
Key drivers
- Multiple consensus forecasts are at 0.3% headline CPI.
- Threshold is only 0.1%, so normal misses still resolve Yes.
Risk factors
- A rare sub-0.1% print would flip the market to No.
- Falling gasoline prices could drag the headline figure lower.
Scenarios
Best case
If BLS reports 0.3% or higher (2026-11-10T13:30:00Z), Yes rises to about 99%.
Most likely
Most likely CPI lands around 0.2%-0.3%, with Yes around 97%.
Worst case
If BLS reports 0.1% or below (2026-11-10T13:30:00Z), Yes falls to about 0%.
More from this day
- economyPolymarket7mo
Swiss National Bank Decision in June?
AI2%MKT17%Edge-15HypedSlight lean to No: the SNB’s policy rate is already 0.00%, and the latest October CPI rose to 1.5% year over year, which makes a 50+ bp cut by June 2027 look very unlikely.
- politicsPolymarket16d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by...?
AI31%MKT19%Edge+12UndervaluedLeaning Yes: the market is probably a bit too low given the Nov. 9 impeachment push and the possibility Trump acts on the private replacement chatter. The main reason is that Hegseth faces real near-term pressure, even though he still has Trump’s public backing.
- pop culturePolymarket7mo
Grammys 2027: Album of the Year Winner
AI52%MKT42%Edge+10UndervaluedLeaning Yes: Olivia Rodrigo looks like an early frontrunner, with strong commercial numbers and fresh industry chatter pointing to a serious Album of the Year run. The most important near-term test is the November 16, 2026 nomination list, where this album is widely expected to appear.