Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Leaning No: Netanyahu is still only caretaker PM, and on November 8 President Herzog gave Gadi Eisenkot the first mandate to form a government. That makes Netanyahu’s path harder right now, even though it is not closed off.
Analysis
On November 8, 2026, Isaac Herzog gave Gadi Eisenkot the first chance to form a coalition after the October 27 election. Netanyahu has not been sworn in as the next post-election prime minister, and caretaker service does not count for this market.
The key question is whether Eisenkot can assemble 61 seats or fail and pass the mandate along. Netanyahu’s bloc is the largest but still short of a majority, and the current process favors someone else first, so Yes needs a later reversal rather than the most direct path.
Arguments
For
- Likud remains the largest party with 27 seats, which keeps Netanyahu central to any eventual coalition math.
- If the opposition coalition fractures over Arab-party support or policy vetoes, Netanyahu could become the fallback option.
- His current caretaker role preserves visibility and leverage during the bargaining period.
Against
- The president already chose Eisenkot first, which makes Netanyahu less likely to be the next sworn-in prime minister.
- Netanyahu’s bloc is eight seats short of a majority, and at least one pivotal partner has not committed to him.
Key drivers
- Herzog formally gave Eisenkot the first mandate on November 8, which is the strongest near-term signal against Netanyahu.
- Netanyahu’s bloc has only 53 seats, so he still needs additional partners to reach 61 and be sworn in.
Risk factors
- If Eisenkot cannot build a coalition, Herzog could turn to another lawmaker, including Netanyahu, later in the process.
- Political bargaining with ultra-Orthodox and other swing factions could still produce a Netanyahu-led majority despite the current setback.
Scenarios
Best case
If Eisenkot fails to form a government and Herzog then asks Netanyahu to try, with coalition talks succeeding by late 2026, Yes rises to about 35%.
Most likely
Most likely Eisenkot gets the first serious attempt and Netanyahu remains caretaker or a fallback candidate, with Yes around 16%.
Worst case
If Eisenkot forms and is sworn in as prime minister during his mandate in November or December 2026, Yes falls to about 2%.
More from this day
- economyPolymarket7mo
Swiss National Bank Decision in June?
AI2%MKT17%Edge-15HypedSlight lean to No: the SNB’s policy rate is already 0.00%, and the latest October CPI rose to 1.5% year over year, which makes a 50+ bp cut by June 2027 look very unlikely.
- politicsPolymarket16d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by...?
AI31%MKT19%Edge+12UndervaluedLeaning Yes: the market is probably a bit too low given the Nov. 9 impeachment push and the possibility Trump acts on the private replacement chatter. The main reason is that Hegseth faces real near-term pressure, even though he still has Trump’s public backing.
- pop culturePolymarket7mo
Grammys 2027: Album of the Year Winner
AI52%MKT42%Edge+10UndervaluedLeaning Yes: Olivia Rodrigo looks like an early frontrunner, with strong commercial numbers and fresh industry chatter pointing to a serious Album of the Year run. The most important near-term test is the November 16, 2026 nomination list, where this album is widely expected to appear.