What will gas hit the week of November 9?
Leaning No: the national AAA average was about $4.0093 on November 9, still roughly 13 cents below the $4.14 trigger, and the latest move has been down, not up.
Analysis
On November 9, 2026, AAA put the U.S. national regular-gas average at about $4.01, which is still well under the $4.14 level and came after a sixth straight weekly decline. That means the market needs a fairly quick 13-cent rebound within the November 9 to November 15 window.
Recent crude and gasoline futures were also lower on November 9, which argues against a sudden national jump. The main support for Yes is that gasoline inventories remain slightly below normal and this price is still unusually high for November, so a brief spike is possible if oil turns quickly.
Arguments
For
- Gasoline inventories were still 0.9% below the five-year average on November 9, which leaves some room for a supply-driven uptick.
- The national average is already elevated for the season, so only a modest 13-cent rise is needed to clear $4.14.
Against
- AAA reported a clear downtrend on November 9, with the national average about 16 cents lower than a week earlier.
- December WTI and RBOB both fell on November 9, signaling no immediate market push toward a higher retail average.
Key drivers
- AAA’s national average on November 9 was about $4.0093, leaving a gap of roughly 13 cents to the $4.14 threshold.
- The recent trend is downward, with gasoline falling for six straight weeks and futures also soft on November 9.
Risk factors
- A tight U.S. gasoline inventory balance could still trigger a short-lived bounce if crude firms during the week.
- The EIA November outlook release on November 10 could shift near-term price expectations if it shows a meaningfully tighter oil market.
Scenarios
Best case
If crude snaps back after the November 10 EIA outlook and AAA prints a sharp daily rebound by November 12, Yes rises to about 35%.
Most likely
Most likely AAA stays below $4.14 for the whole week, with Yes around 20% to 25%.
Worst case
If the national average stays near $4.00 or keeps drifting lower through November 15, Yes falls to about 10%.
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