Edges for Sep 21, 2026

Trump looks more likely than not to have a clearly negative 2026 by the market’s own bear-case standard: repeated legal setbacks, court limits, and headline damage are already piling up. The market appears to be pricing an almost-no-risk outcome despite a year that is structurally set up for more confrontation and reversals.

Keith Sonderling is the most plausible listed contender only because he is the acting secretary, but the reporting points more strongly to Lori Chavez-DeRemer as the actual next Labor Secretary. That makes Sonderling a much weaker favorite than the market suggests.

The odds of a Yes outcome look materially higher than the current market price because there is already a reported 2026 system score at the stated gold threshold, and only a limited amount of time remains for the relevant sources to formalize or publicize a qualifying result. Still, the biggest uncertainty is whether the market settles on a demonstrated benchmark result or an officially recognized competition outcome.

A Barron Trump pardon looks unlikely absent any known federal case or even a stated need for clemency. My independent estimate is well below the market price because there is no visible factual path to a pardon right now.

Samuel Alito is an aging justice, but there is no clear public indication that he plans to resign, and Supreme Court justices usually leave on their own timing rather than under near-term pressure. I put the chance of a resignation during Trump’s remaining term at 18%.

Democrats have a plausible Senate path, but holding the House at the same time is the harder condition and the missing House data makes the joint outcome much less likely than the market price suggests. I would lean against D Senate and D House together, with the combined probability closer to the high 20s than the high 50s.

Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story has a credible path to finishing #2 because the latest available U.S. snapshot already places it there, but the weekly result is still vulnerable to late-period viewing swings and stronger competition from Crew Girl. I would price it well above the market’s current level, but still below coin-flip odds.

The market looks meaningfully closer to Yes than No because officials have publicly described a signing as imminent, but the current evidence still points to a pending event rather than a completed signature. I would price the chance of a qualifying signature by September 23 at below the market, mainly because the remaining risk is not the existence of a deal but whether the formal signing actually happens on time.

Scheffler has a real, non-trivial path to the career grand slam within this window, and the market looks too pessimistic at 5%. I’d put the chance around 28% because his baseline major-winning rate is elite and he still has multiple attempts before 2028.

I put the probability of Trump being impeached before Jan. 20, 2029 at 44%. The market’s 66% price looks too optimistic on impeachment happening, because it requires not just a House shift but also a sustained political decision to spend capital on articles that may still fail to advance cleanly.

Democrats look favored to win the House, but the current market price appears somewhat aggressive relative to the mix of forecasting uncertainty and the fact that Republicans still have a narrow seat advantage to defend. My assessment is that Democrats are likelier than not to take control, but not by as much as the market implies.

I think a U.S. acquisition of any part of Greenland before 2029 is very unlikely, with the main realistic paths being extraordinary geopolitical disruption or an outright transfer deal that currently has no sign of political support. My independent estimate is well below the market price at about 8%.

Alibaba is still the likeliest winner because it has multiple top-tier Qwen releases and strong breadth across text, coding, and multimodal tasks. However, the margin is not huge, and close rivals like Z.ai, Moonshot, and DeepSeek still have a realistic path to overtaking it before month-end.

Boeing is improving, but the reported year-to-date pace and production constraints make more than 680 deliveries in 2026 a long shot. I estimate a low-probability yes, but still materially higher than the market’s 4% price.

The most likely outcome is that Day and Night debuts below 30k first-week sales. Carly Rae Jepsen has name recognition and the double-album format can help streams, but her recent commercial ceiling is probably still well below the threshold.

China’s CPI is more likely to stay above 0.4% than fall back to that threshold, given the recent pickup in headline and core inflation. Weak demand still restrains inflation, but the latest data make an ultra-low September reading look unlikely.

Ariana Grande is a legitimate nominee, but the field looks crowded and she does not appear to be the frontrunner for Video of the Year. I put a small but real chance on a win because nomination status is secured and fan mobilization can matter at the VMAs, but the overall likelihood remains low.

Anthropic looks like the strongest current favorite because its Claude family is already leading or near the top in the most relevant agent-style leaderboards. The main reason for caution is that this market is still vulnerable to a late October jump from OpenAI or another major model provider.

2026 has accumulated enough extreme-heat signals to make a top-rank finish plausible, but being the single hottest year requires sustained warmth through the rest of the year and a comparison against already very hot recent years. I think the market is a bit too confident, so I put the chance of 2026 finishing as the hottest year on record below the current price.

I see Illinois as plausible but not the most likely outcome. The Bears still have a real Illinois pathway through Arlington Heights, but the stronger recent emphasis on Hammond and the compressed construction timeline make a timely Illinois relocation only slightly better than a coin flip.

The bull case for Trump in 2026 looks possible but still unlikely: there are real pathways through stronger growth, lower rates, legal wins, and favorable Republican outcomes, but each depends on several things breaking his way at once. I put the independent probability of Yes at 14%, well above the current market price, because the market appears to discount a nontrivial chance of a coordinated political-economic upswing.

Arsenal look like the strongest team in the race and the market context points to them as the most likely champion, but the title is still far from locked because Manchester City remains a major threat. I would price a Yes outcome higher than the current market at about 57%.

The odds of Trump actually buying any part of Greenland look very low. The new security agreement points in the opposite direction: expanded U.S. access without any territorial transfer.

I assess the chance of Trump being both impeached and removed before the end of his term as quite low, around 6%. The latest House vote to table an impeachment resolution reinforces that removal would require a major political shift plus a Senate conviction that remains structurally difficult.

Trump invoking the Insurrection Act is plausible but still not the base case. I put the chance meaningfully above the market at 28%, mainly because the administration has both the rhetorical willingness and the legal flexibility to reach for it if unrest, election disorder, or sustained domestic conflict escalates.

I think FDA approval is meaningfully possible but still not the most likely outcome by the end of 2027. The current market price looks somewhat optimistic because the program has encouraging late-stage data but still faces substantial clinical, manufacturing, and regulatory risk before approval.

A cabinet impeachment before the deadline is still unlikely, but the Hegseth case makes it materially more plausible than a generic historical baseline. I estimate a modest chance, driven by an active impeachment effort that could break through if the House floor situation changes quickly.

I think the market is more likely to resolve No than Yes, because the settlement source appears tied to Iran’s free-market USD rate and recent open-market quotes are already above 2.0 million rials. The Yes case still has some support from lower official or broad mid-market references, but those do not look like the most relevant benchmark for this question.

The most likely outcome is still no recession by the end of 2026, but the risk is meaningfully higher than the market price suggests because late-2026 shocks could still produce two negative GDP quarters or trigger an NBER call. I would put the chance of Yes at 17%.

I put the chance of a 2027 recession modestly above the market, at 32%. Baseline forecasts still point to continued expansion, but the downside risks from an AI-led asset correction, weaker capex, and policy missteps are meaningful enough that a one-in-three probability looks fair.

My base case is that 2036 U.S. real GDP growth lands near trend rather than dramatically above or below it, with 1.6% to 2.0% the single most likely bucket. I give meaningful weight to 2.1% to 2.5% because current policy forecasts and AI optimism both leave room for a modest upside surprise.

I assign a low probability that Trump will actually take back the Panama Canal during his term. The available evidence supports sustained pressure and rhetoric, not a realistic pathway to a legal transfer of sovereignty.

Anthropic is the clear favorite to finish October with the top arena-ranked model, but the race is close enough that a late OpenAI or Google release could still disrupt it. I put the chance of Yes somewhat below the market at 81%.

USAID is far more likely to be weakened, repurposed, or folded into other structures than formally eliminated. I put the chance of outright elimination at 14%.

My independent view is that 2035 US real GDP growth is most likely to land near trend, with the highest probability on the 2.1% to 2.5% band and a meaningful chance of 1.6% to 2.0%. I think the market is a bit too pessimistic on the upper-trend outcomes and too concentrated in sub-2% growth cases.

My independent estimate is that Elon Musk has only a low single-digit chance of personally visiting Mars before Aug. 1, 2099. The main constraint is not just SpaceX’s technical roadmap, but Musk’s own survival and the extreme difficulty of crewed Mars travel.

Ulf Kristersson looks very unlikely to be the next Prime Minister of Sweden. The election outcome, his resignation, and the speaker’s move toward Magdalena Andersson all point to a different successor.

I estimate a relatively low but non-trivial chance that Friedrich Merz is no longer Chancellor before the end of 2026. The market price around 20.5% looks broadly reasonable, and I would place the chance of a Yes outcome slightly below that level.

Andrew Oldham is a plausible future Supreme Court candidate, but the current evidence does not show he is the leading or imminent choice for the next vacancy. I think his true chance is meaningfully below the market’s 21%, with James Ho and D. John Sauer looking at least as viable in the current conservative shortlist.

Trump resigning before the end of his term looks unlikely, with the main reasons being his past behavior, incentive structure, and the absence of any concrete current resignation signal. I would put the chance well below the market price, though not near zero because health, legal, or political shocks can still change the picture over a multi-year horizon.

Vučić is a real and officially declared candidate for prime minister, so the question is no longer about intent but about whether his bloc can secure the parliamentary majority and form a government. I slightly favor Yes because he remains the dominant figure in Serbian politics, but the path is not secure given organized opposition and coalition uncertainty.

A Zelenskyy-Putin encounter before Jan. 1, 2027 is possible but still unlikely. I make it somewhat higher than the market because both leaders have kept the door open rhetorically and an international summit could create a narrow path to an in-person interaction.

The likelihood that the United States acquires any part of Canada before 2029 is very low. Current tensions look like trade and security pressure, not a credible pathway to territorial transfer.

The threshold for a Yes outcome is high relative to current traffic, and the latest reported transit levels remain far below what would be needed to hit a 7-day average of 60. I think the market is still too optimistic, though the probability is not zero because a sharp geopolitical de-escalation or temporary surge in ship counts could change the picture quickly.

NVIDIA is the clear current leader and the market is already pricing a strong chance that it stays on top through year-end. I think the Yes outcome is somewhat more likely than not, but the gap is not wide enough to justify the very high confidence implied by some bullish commentary.

A no-qualifying-meeting outcome remains the most likely result because there is still no publicly scheduled senior-level U.S.-Iran negotiating round before the deadline. Active mediation keeps some chance of a surprise session alive, but the balance of evidence points to no formal meeting beginning by September 30.

The evidence strongly favors no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump’s term. The reported deal is framed as a security and basing arrangement that preserves Danish sovereignty, which makes an actual acquisition highly unlikely.

I put the chance of exactly two Supreme Court confirmations in the 2025-2029 term at 29%. That is meaningfully below the market’s 35% yes price, because two vacancies plus Senate confirmation is possible but still requires a fairly specific chain of events.

Pete Hegseth is a real contender to be the next Cabinet departure, but the market likely understates his vulnerability only modestly. I put his independent chance at 26%, with the larger view that no single contender is dominant enough to make the race feel close to settled.

I think there is a meaningful chance AI will end 2026 with at least one qualifying Millennium Prize Problem solved announcement, but the bar for this market is high and the current evidence is still too shaky to favor more than a coin-flip against zero. My estimate is that there is a slightly greater chance of no qualifying AI solution than of one or more, so I lean No on the market question.

I assess only a low chance that China overtakes the US in nominal GDP by 2030. The most plausible path from current projections still leaves the US comfortably ahead, so I think the market is somewhat too bullish on a Yes outcome.

Trump appears far more likely to tighten than expand high-skill immigration, especially H-1B access. I գնահատ probability of a true expansion at 17%, with the most plausible outcome being continued restriction or cosmetic changes that do not materially increase admissions.

Anthropic has a real path to finishing second, but the current evidence still suggests it is more likely to remain in a tight contest than to clearly secure that spot. I would price Yes at 19%, meaning No remains the more probable outcome.

The 30-year yield is already brushing against 5.40%, so only a modest upward move is needed for a Yes. I see a somewhat higher-than-even chance that a combination of sticky inflation, restrictive policy, and heavy Treasury supply pushes it over the line before year-end.

The most plausible outcome is No, because the reporting shows sustained U.S. strikes and regional military activity but not a conventional ground invasion or an offensive aimed at taking and holding Iranian territory. The market’s Yes price looks elevated mainly because the U.S. is already in direct conflict with Iran, but the resolution standard appears narrower than mere use of force.

Ethereum looks slightly more likely than not to touch $3,000 at some point before the end of 2026. The market is pricing a modest Yes edge, and that seems reasonable because ETH is already close enough to the target that a relatively normal bullish leg could complete the move, even though a cluster of forecasts still sits just below the threshold.

Payward currently appears financially stable, with recent expansion and investment news pointing away from distress. I assess a low but non-zero chance of a bankruptcy announcement by the end of 2027, below the market-implied level.

Robinhood looks unlikely to finish 2026 above 30.2 million funded customers unless growth reaccelerates materially in the next few months. The most recent pace implies the company is still meaningfully short of the threshold, so I put the Yes chance below the market price.

Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth is more likely to remain above 0.5% than fall below it. The economy looks sluggish and vulnerable to a quarter-to-quarter slowdown, but the available evidence still points to modest positive year-over-year growth rather than an unusually weak print.

Anthropic remains a serious contender because it has recently shown strong math and reasoning results, but the market is still competitive enough that a late Google, Moonshot, or another frontier-model jump could easily displace it. I put Anthropic’s chance of finishing first at 46%.