Edges for Sep 20, 2026

Trump looks more likely than not to have a clearly negative 2026 by the market’s own bear-case standard: repeated legal setbacks, court limits, and headline damage are already piling up. The market appears to be pricing an almost-no-risk outcome despite a year that is structurally set up for more confrontation and reversals.

Keith Sonderling is the most plausible listed contender only because he is the acting secretary, but the reporting points more strongly to Lori Chavez-DeRemer as the actual next Labor Secretary. That makes Sonderling a much weaker favorite than the market suggests.

A signed U.S.-Denmark Greenland deal by September 23 looks unlikely on this timeline. The market price appears too optimistic for a formal bilateral agreement that would require coordinated signatures within just a few days.

Alibaba has a strong chance to contend for the top Chinese slot, but the market appears to be pricing in more certainty than the evidence supports. The leaderboard is still rotating among several Chinese labs, so I would put Alibaba slightly above even money rather than a near-lock.

A Barron Trump pardon looks unlikely absent any known federal case or even a stated need for clemency. My independent estimate is well below the market price because there is no visible factual path to a pardon right now.

Democrats have a plausible Senate path, but holding the House at the same time is the harder condition and the missing House data makes the joint outcome much less likely than the market price suggests. I would lean against D Senate and D House together, with the combined probability closer to the high 20s than the high 50s.

Bad Bunny is still a top-tier candidate because he finished 2025 as Spotify’s global leader and has a massive worldwide fan base. Even so, the current 2026 signals are weaker than the market price suggests, so I think the true chance is meaningfully below the current Yes price.

Scheffler has a real, non-trivial path to the career grand slam within this window, and the market looks too pessimistic at 5%. I’d put the chance around 28% because his baseline major-winning rate is elite and he still has multiple attempts before 2028.

New Hampshire still has a strong path to preserving first-in-the-nation status because state law pushes its primary earlier than any other similar contest, but the DNC’s move to put South Carolina first creates a real chance that the party calendar prevails. I’d rate Yes at 67%, below the market’s enthusiasm but still the most likely outcome.

I put the probability of Trump being impeached before Jan. 20, 2029 at 44%. The market’s 66% price looks too optimistic on impeachment happening, because it requires not just a House shift but also a sustained political decision to spend capital on articles that may still fail to advance cleanly.

I think the market is overpricing the chance of a 20+ repetition threshold here. Trump is likely to mention these words a few times, especially “billion,” but the available previews point more toward political and geopolitical rhetoric than a numbers-heavy speech.

I think a sub-$10 million second weekend is possible but still not the most likely outcome. The opening was soft enough to raise concern, yet a $30 million debut still gives the film a lot of room to stay above that threshold unless the drop is unusually severe.

Elon Musk is very likely to exceed 40 counted posts in this window, so the Yes outcome looks unlikely. The market pricing and the recent activity summary both point to a posting pace that is already close to or above the cutoff rather than safely below it.

Starbucks looks highly likely to finish 2026 above 41,800 global stores. The latest reported count and management’s net-new store guidance already place the company on a path comfortably above the threshold unless there is an unusually large reversal.

I գնահատestimate a meaningfully lower chance than the market that Alito resigns before Trump’s term ends. The evidence points to continued service unless health, personal circumstances, or a deliberate retirement plan emerge.

Netanyahu is very likely to say “Israel” at least 10 times in a UN General Assembly speech, especially given the expected focus on security, Gaza, Iran, and diplomatic recognition. The current market price of 96% looks reasonable, though not quite risk-free because exact phrasing can vary.

Ethereum has a real path to $3,000 by the end of 2026, but it still needs a decisive breakout above nearby resistance and a stronger market tailwind than current price action suggests. I would price the Yes outcome below the market at 46%, with the No side slightly favored because several near-term forecasts and technical signals remain below the target.

Anthropic looks like the favorite because it is currently at or near the top of the relevant leaderboard and is broadly viewed as the front-runner. Still, the margin is not secure, and a late OpenAI or Google release could easily change the outcome before the end of October.

My view is that 2036 U.S. real GDP growth is most likely to land in the mid-2% range, with 2.1% to 2.5% the single most probable bucket. The market looks a bit too pessimistic on the chance that growth stays near trend rather than slipping into the sub-2% range.

Boeing is on a strong delivery trajectory, but getting above 680 in 2026 still requires a sustained step-up that does not look fully in place yet. I estimate about an 18% chance of a Yes outcome.

China’s CPI is more likely to stay above 0.4% than fall back to that threshold, given the recent pickup in headline and core inflation. Weak demand still restrains inflation, but the latest data make an ultra-low September reading look unlikely.

I think there is a meaningful chance USAID is effectively abolished or formally eliminated during Trump's term, but it is still far from the base case. My independent probability is 35%, above the market price because the political appetite to dismantle it appears stronger than the market is implying.

I assess the chance of Trump being both impeached and removed before the end of his term as quite low, around 6%. The latest House vote to table an impeachment resolution reinforces that removal would require a major political shift plus a Senate conviction that remains structurally difficult.

There is a real near-term path to a House impeachment vote against Pete Hegseth, but the odds still hinge on whether enough Republicans break ranks. I make the chance that at least one cabinet member is impeached before Jan. 1, 2027 at 17%.

August JOLTS openings are more likely to stay at or above 7.0 million than fall below it, but the margin is not huge because the labor market has clearly softened. I would put the chance of a sub-7.0 million print at 24%.

Arsenal look like the strongest team in the race and the market context points to them as the most likely champion, but the title is still far from locked because Manchester City remains a major threat. I would price a Yes outcome higher than the current market at about 57%.

I see Illinois as plausible but not the most likely outcome. The Bears still have a real Illinois pathway through Arlington Heights, but the stronger recent emphasis on Hammond and the compressed construction timeline make a timely Illinois relocation only slightly better than a coin flip.

I put the chance of a 2027 recession modestly above the market, at 32%. Baseline forecasts still point to continued expansion, but the downside risks from an AI-led asset correction, weaker capex, and policy missteps are meaningful enough that a one-in-three probability looks fair.

I think the chance of the U.S. adding a new state before Trump leaves office is very low, though not literally zero. Trump’s rhetoric about Canada has created noise, but there is no visible legislative, treaty, or referendum pathway that makes statehood plausible in the remaining term.

I think a U.S. acquisition of any part of Greenland before 2029 is very unlikely, with the main realistic paths being extraordinary geopolitical disruption or an outright transfer deal that currently has no sign of political support. My independent estimate is well below the market price at about 8%.

The most likely outcome is still no recession by the end of 2026, but the risk is meaningfully higher than the market price suggests because late-2026 shocks could still produce two negative GDP quarters or trigger an NBER call. I would put the chance of Yes at 17%.

Trump invoking the Insurrection Act is plausible but still not the base case. I put the chance meaningfully above the market at 28%, mainly because the administration has both the rhetorical willingness and the legal flexibility to reach for it if unrest, election disorder, or sustained domestic conflict escalates.

I estimate a moderately higher-than-market chance that the Fed leaves rates unchanged in December 2027, with the hold outcome the clear baseline unless inflation re-accelerates. The most plausible alternative is a cut, not a hike, so the market appears a bit too willing to price in policy drift away from the Fed’s current projected path.

I put the chance that Elon Musk personally visits Mars before August 1, 2099 at just 1%. The biggest obstacle is not just SpaceX execution, but Musk’s own survival to an age far beyond normal human lifespan.

United Russia is the clear favorite to remain the dominant force in the Duma, but this market asks which party gains the most seats versus the last election, which creates some extra uncertainty. I still put ER well ahead of the field, though not at near-certainty levels because its own seat total could slip while a smaller pro-Kremlin party posts a larger gain.

I assign a low probability that Trump will actually take back the Panama Canal during his term. The available evidence supports sustained pressure and rhetoric, not a realistic pathway to a legal transfer of sovereignty.

Trump resigning before the end of his term looks unlikely, with the main reasons being his past behavior, incentive structure, and the absence of any concrete current resignation signal. I would put the chance well below the market price, though not near zero because health, legal, or political shocks can still change the picture over a multi-year horizon.

A true 5%+ quarterly GDP print is possible but still unlikely; the economy looks more like a steady low-to-mid 2% expansion than a boom. I put the chance of at least one quarter above 5% between Q1 2025 and Q4 2028 at 19%.

My view is that 2035 U.S. real GDP growth is most likely to land in the low-to-mid 2% range, with a meaningful but not dominant chance of a sub-2% outcome. The market looks somewhat too pessimistic overall, though not wildly so.

Democrats remain favored to win the House, with multiple forecasts and seat-based models pointing to a modest but meaningful edge. The market is pricing an even stronger chance, but the combination of narrow control and still-open toss-up races keeps some real upset risk alive.

Ulf Kristersson looks very unlikely to be the next Prime Minister of Sweden. The election result and his resignation leave him needing an unusual parliamentary reversal to remain in office.

The odds of Trump actually buying any part of Greenland look very low. The new security agreement points in the opposite direction: expanded U.S. access without any territorial transfer.

Andrew Oldham is a plausible future Supreme Court candidate, but the current evidence does not show he is the leading or imminent choice for the next vacancy. I think his true chance is meaningfully below the market’s 21%, with James Ho and D. John Sauer looking at least as viable in the current conservative shortlist.

A Zelenskyy-Putin encounter before Jan. 1, 2027 is possible but still unlikely. I make it somewhat higher than the market because both leaders have kept the door open rhetorically and an international summit could create a narrow path to an in-person interaction.

The 30-year Treasury yield appears highly likely to hit 5.40% before the end of 2026, and recent market action suggests it may already have done so intraday. The main uncertainty is whether the official Treasury daily series confirms a qualifying print, but the odds still strongly favor Yes.

Brooks & Dunn are the clear historical favorite in this category and their nomination makes a win very plausible, but the market is still pricing in a meaningful chance that one of the other nominated duos breaks through. I would put their win probability slightly below the current market, at 64%.

Marine Le Pen is in the strongest position she has ever been in for a French presidential race, but the two-round system and unresolved ballot and coalition dynamics still leave a substantial path to defeat. I would put her chances modestly above the market-implied level, but still well below 50%.

A qualifying US-Iran diplomatic round before September 30 looks more likely than not to fail to materialize, despite active signaling and mediation. The market’s high price for no meeting is broadly justified, though UN week and backchannel diplomacy leave a meaningful chance of a last-minute qualifying encounter.

I think a Yes is still possible, but it would require an unusually explicit and public corporate declaration in a very short window. My independent estimate is modestly above the market because a few high-profile leaders have already used AGI language, but the evidentiary bar and time remaining make No the likelier outcome.

I put only a low single-digit-to-mid-single-digit chance on the United States acquiring any part of Canada before 2029. The current rhetoric is serious enough to keep the tail risk alive, but there is still no credible legal, diplomatic, or military pathway that looks close to producing territorial transfer.

The September hike has already occurred, so the market now depends mostly on whether October is a pause and December is another hike. With December still leaning toward tightening and October close to a coin flip, I see a meaningful but not dominant chance of the exact Hike-Pause-Hike sequence.

The most plausible outcome is No, because the reporting shows sustained U.S. strikes and regional military activity but not a conventional ground invasion or an offensive aimed at taking and holding Iranian territory. The market’s Yes price looks elevated mainly because the U.S. is already in direct conflict with Iran, but the resolution standard appears narrower than mere use of force.

I assign a modest chance that Tesla and SpaceX will be officially announced as merging or being acquired by one another before year-end. The latest comments from Elon Musk keep the possibility alive, but there is still no concrete transaction, filing, or formal process in motion, so No remains the far likelier outcome.

Pete Hegseth is the single most plausible next Cabinet departure, but the probability is still only moderate because impeachment noise is far more developed than any actual removal mechanism. I put him slightly above the field, with Brooke Rollins and Susie Wiles as the main alternatives if turnover starts elsewhere.

Anthropic is a strong favorite to finish September with the top overall Text Arena model, driven by its recent flagship launch, broad benchmark strength, and the market’s extremely high confidence. The main reason for caution is that the field is very competitive and a late September move by a rival could still change the ranking.

I think Yes is more likely than not, but not close to certain. The market’s pricing looks a bit rich relative to the launch-timing risk and the chance that the token’s first-day price settles below the threshold after initial hype fades.

Vučić is the ruling party’s announced prime-ministerial pick, which gives him a real path to the office if SNS wins enough seats and keeps coalition discipline. Still, the outcome is not close to certain because the election result, coalition arithmetic, and his own willingness to complete the move all remain meaningful hurdles.

Alibaba looks like the frontrunner, but the market is ultimately about a specific leaderboard ranking at a specific time, and several Chinese labs are still close enough to overtake it. I would put Alibaba’s chance of finishing first among primarily Chinese companies at about two-thirds, a bit below the current market price.

Elon Musk is still posting at a pace that makes fewer than 40 counted tweets over this three-day window possible, but not the most likely outcome. The recent cadence and event-driven topics point more toward a mid-range total above 40 than a quiet stretch.

Miranda Lambert is a credible nominee with real category history, but the current field looks highly competitive and the market is already pricing her as a long shot. I would still put her chance above zero, but well below one in four, because the most likely outcome is that a different current frontrunner takes the award.