Edges for Sep 22, 2026
K 30 · P 30 · 60 edges
60 of 60 edges shown
- PoliticsKalshi1y
2026: Trump's bad year?
AI44%MKT4%Edge+40Hidden GemThe bear case for Trump in 2026 looks materially more likely than the market implies, because multiple legal, regulatory, and political setbacks are already active and could easily compound into a broader negative year. I’d price Yes at 44%, not 4.2%, because the market seems to be treating this as a rare tail event when the underlying drivers are already in motion.
- pop culturePolymarket7d
Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?
AI83%MKT50%Edge+33Hidden GemTrump is very likely to insult Tucker Carlson publicly again before September 30. The feud is active, recent reporting already documents multiple Trump insults, and Carlson’s continued attacks give Trump strong incentive to پاسخ in kind.
- techPolymarket3mo
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
AI69%MKT47%Edge+22Hidden GemI think there is a solid majority chance that no additional qualifying Millennium Prize Problem will be announced solved by an eligible AI lab in 2026. The recent Navier-Stokes claim raises attention, but under this market’s rules it does not count unless a qualifying official solution announcement occurs for one of the five listed problems.
- CompaniesKalshi1y
Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
AI18%MKT4%Edge+14UndervaluedBoeing is improving, but the reported year-to-date pace and production constraints make more than 680 deliveries in 2026 a long shot. I estimate a low-probability yes, but still materially higher than the market’s 4% price.
- EconomicsKalshi6y
US real GDP growth in 2032?
AI22%MKT10%Edge+12UndervaluedThe most likely 2032 GDP growth outcome is still centered near the Fed’s long-run 2% trend, with a modest lean toward the 2.1% to 2.5% bin and substantial probability in the adjacent 1.1% to 2.0% range. I think the market is a bit too bearish on the middle-growth outcomes and underweights how sticky trend growth usually is over a six-year horizon.
- economyPolymarket7d
Core PCE YoY - August 2026
AI13%MKT6%Edge+7UndervaluedCore PCE looks more likely to stay above 3.0% in August than to slip below it. The latest readings and Fed projections point to gradual disinflation, but not enough to make a sub-3.0% result the base case.
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- FinancialsKalshi#4
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#4
Trump x Greenland deal signed by...?
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#5
Who will Trump pardon?
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Pro - techPolymarket#5
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
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Pro - CompaniesKalshi#6
Starbucks total global stores in 2026
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#6
Which party will win the House in 2026?
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Pro - SportsKalshi#7
Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation
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Pro - cryptoPolymarket#7
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
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Pro - EconomicsKalshi#8
Recession in 2027?
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Pro - economyPolymarket#8
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
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Pro - SportsKalshi#9
Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028?
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Pro - pop culturePolymarket#9
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
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Pro - WorldKalshi#10
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?
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Pro - sportsPolymarket#10
EPL: 2027 Champion
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#11
Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
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Pro - techPolymarket#11
Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut?
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#12
Will President Trump be impeached during his term?
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Pro - techPolymarket#12
Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut?
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#13
Will Trump resign during his term?
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#13
Ohio Senate Election Winner
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#14
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?
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Pro - techPolymarket#14
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#15
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
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Pro - techPolymarket#15
Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#16
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
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Pro - techPolymarket#16
Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#17
Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#17
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#18
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#18
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#19
Will a cabinet member be impeached?
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#19
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
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Pro - EconomicsKalshi#20
US real GDP growth in 2035?
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Pro - pop culturePolymarket#20
VMA Artist of the Year 2026
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Pro - EconomicsKalshi#21
US real GDP growth in 2036?
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Pro - techPolymarket#21
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#22
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?
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Pro - cryptoPolymarket#22
What price will Ethereum hit September 21-27?
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#23
Will the US take control of any part of Canada?
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#23
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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Pro - EconomicsKalshi#24
US real GDP growth in 2033?
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Pro - politicsPolymarket#24
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#25
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
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Pro - techPolymarket#25
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#26
Which agencies will Trump eliminate?
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Pro - techPolymarket#26
Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#27
Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?
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Pro - sportsPolymarket#27
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#28
Will Trump expand the H-1B program?
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Pro - pop culturePolymarket#28
Clavicular sentenced to prison?
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Pro - CompaniesKalshi#29
Robinhood funded customers in 2026
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Pro - pop culturePolymarket#29
VMA Best Country 2026
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Pro - PoliticsKalshi#30
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
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Pro - electionsPolymarket#30
Michigan Senate Election Winner
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