Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?

Trump looks more likely than not to have a clearly negative 2026 by the market’s own bear-case standard: repeated legal setbacks, court limits, and headline damage are already piling up. The market appears to be pricing an almost-no-risk outcome despite a year that is structurally set up for more confrontation and reversals.

Keith Sonderling is the most plausible listed contender only because he is the acting secretary, but the reporting points more strongly to Lori Chavez-DeRemer as the actual next Labor Secretary. That makes Sonderling a much weaker favorite than the market suggests.

The odds of a Yes outcome look materially higher than the current market price because there is already a reported 2026 system score at the stated gold threshold, and only a limited amount of time remains for the relevant sources to formalize or publicize a qualifying result. Still, the biggest uncertainty is whether the market settles on a demonstrated benchmark result or an officially recognized competition outcome.