Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

The strongest argument for a resignation is simply age and tenure: Alito is 76, and over a 2.3-year remaining Trump term there is a meaningful but still limited window for a retirement or health-driven departure. Supreme Court justices do sometimes time exits around favorable political conditions, and Trump’s ability to appoint a successor could make this period more attractive if Alito personally wanted to step down for ideological or personal reasons.

Against that, the available reporting points the other way. The latest coverage says there is no immediate sign of retirement, and Alito is still actively participating in major cases, which is exactly what you would expect from a justice who is not preparing to leave. The fact that Trump publicly praises Alito also suggests no obvious political rupture or pressure forcing a departure, and justices of his profile generally prefer to remain on the bench unless health, family, or a long-considered retirement plan intervenes.

Putting those forces together, the base rate looks much lower than the market price. A 56% implied probability is more consistent with someone already signaling retirement or facing severe health concerns than with a healthy, active justice whose recent public posture is stable. The market may be overweighting age and the long history of retirement speculation while underweighting how rarely justices resign absent a clear trigger.