Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

The recent House vote is a meaningful signal that, as of now, there is not enough political alignment to impeach Trump. The House is the only chamber that can do it, and the latest effort was tabled decisively, with a substantial number of Democrats either voting present or against the move. That suggests even among Trump critics, there is reluctance to jump straight into formal impeachment absent a stronger evidentiary or strategic case. In other words, the baseline environment today is not one of imminent impeachment momentum.

The main reason to still assign a non-trivial probability is time. There are more than two years left in the term, and the 2026 midterms could materially change the House. If Democrats win control by a meaningful margin, the odds of an impeachment inquiry and eventual articles rise sharply, especially if Trump becomes embroiled in a major scandal, legal development, or governing crisis that changes the politics of action. History also shows that impeachment is less about abstract constitutional threshold and more about whether the controlling party sees it as worthwhile; that makes the House majority after 2026 the key variable.

Even so, impeachment is a high-friction political act. A new House majority does not automatically produce articles, because leaders typically weigh public backlash, Senate removal prospects, and whether impeachment would look like a purely partisan replay. The recent failed vote reinforces that Democrats are not currently unified around using impeachment as a near-term tool. For that reason, I think the market is overestimating the likelihood that the necessary coalition forms in time. A 66% price implies impeachment is more likely than not, but the combination of current resistance, procedural hurdles, and the need for a favorable post-2026 political environment makes that too high in my view.