What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story has a credible path to finishing #2 because the latest available U.S. snapshot already places it there, but the weekly result is still vulnerable to late-period viewing swings and stronger competition from Crew Girl. I would price it well above the market’s current level, but still below coin-flip odds.
Analysis
The strongest evidence in favor of Yes is that the most recent U.S. Netflix snapshot already shows Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story at #2. When a title is already sitting in the second slot close to the end of the tracking week, it has a meaningful chance of carrying that position into the official weekly update, especially if it is benefiting from strong true-crime interest and ongoing platform promotion. The show’s visibility on Netflix’s own recommendation surfaces also suggests it is receiving enough exposure to remain competitive, rather than being a one-day spike that quickly fades.
The biggest reason to be cautious is that this market resolves on the weekly ranking, not on a single-day chart. A title can look strong on Friday and still slip by Sunday if its audience decays faster than expected or if another show surges over the weekend. Crew Girl appears to be the main barrier, because it has recently been the stronger title and is described as the U.S. chart leader in the latest snapshots. If Crew Girl sustains its lead and another show like Death of the Pastor’s Wife or a similar holdover picks up late momentum, Monster could be pushed out of second place even if it looked secure earlier in the week.
Market pricing seems to heavily favor No, which likely reflects the fact that the official weekly update has not yet been posted and that the number-two slot is often unstable for a title that is not clearly dominating the chart. Still, the current price may understate Monster’s real chance because the latest evidence is directly supportive and there is no competing data showing a decisive collapse. The most reasonable interpretation is that Monster is a live contender for #2, but not a lock, with its outcome hinging on whether its recent strength persists through the full Monday-to-Sunday window.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: The most recent chart evidence already has Monster in the #2 position, which is a strong starting point for the weekly finish.
- Arguments for Yes: True-crime and Monster-franchise titles can retain substantial short-term attention when they are prominently surfaced by Netflix.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: The weekly ranking can change materially after the latest snapshot, especially if weekend viewing favors another title.
- Arguments against Yes: Crew Girl appears to have stronger overall momentum and may be too entrenched at the top for Monster to hold second.
Key drivers
- The latest available U.S. snapshot already places Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story at #2.
- The official result depends on the full weekly viewership window, not a single-day chart.
Risk factors
- Crew Girl could maintain enough lead to keep Monster from finishing second for the week.
- Late-week viewing shifts could allow another title to overtake Monster before the official update.
Scenarios
Best case
Monster maintains steady viewing through the rest of the week, Crew Girl stays first, and no other title overtakes Monster, allowing it to finish exactly #2 in the U.S. weekly ranking.
Most likely
Monster remains near the top of the chart but is slightly more likely to finish outside #2 than to hold it, because the weekly update still has enough time for late shifts in viewing patterns.
Worst case
Monster loses momentum over the weekend, another show surges past it, and it falls outside the second slot despite its strong midweek position.
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