Edges for Sep 18, 2026

I think the more likely outcome is that Anthropic goes public before OpenAI, so I put the Yes side at a low probability. OpenAI’s public comments and the current reporting both point to Anthropic having the earlier path to listing.

I think there is a modest edge to the opening weekend finishing under $50 million, but it is far from certain. The current tracking cluster sits close to the line, so a result just above or just below $50 million remains the most plausible range.

I put the chance of Barron Trump receiving a presidential pardon before Jan. 21, 2029 at 2%. There is no visible legal predicate for a pardon, and absent a federal case or at least a credible public controversy, the event is extremely unlikely.

I think the bull case for Trump in 2026 is meaningfully more likely than the market implies, though still far from assured. My estimate is that there is roughly a 38% chance the favorable Trump-and-markets narrative remains intact through 2026.

Alibaba looks like a strong contender and may well hold the top Chinese slot by the end of September, but the lead is not secure. The market price appears higher than the evidence warrants because the frontier among Chinese models is still moving quickly and could flip on a late update.

Japan’s core-core CPI is currently running right at 1.9%, which gives the Yes side real support. But because the market resolves on the full 2026 figure, not a single monthly print, the outcome still depends on whether inflation stays capped through the rest of the year.

The market is pricing in a low probability, and that looks broadly fair given the venue denials and apparent permit problems. Still, the chance is not negligible because organizers are still active and a relocation within Russia remains possible before the deadline.

United Russia is overwhelmingly likely to gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election. The main uncertainty is the size of its victory, not whether it finishes first.

Trump voluntarily resigning before the end of his term looks unlikely. The evidence provided shows political turbulence and staff churn, but nothing that meaningfully suggests he is preparing to leave office early.

The bear case for Trump in 2026 looks meaningfully more plausible than the market implies, driven by a real combination of legal defeats, institutional resistance, and the risk of a politically damaging midterm environment. I would price it closer to one-in-four than one-in-nine.

Anthropic is still the likeliest winner because Claude Fable 5.1 appears to be leading the relevant leaderboard right now, but the lead does not look unassailable. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra is close enough that a late-month swap is a meaningful risk, so I would price Yes high but below the market’s near-certain level.

I put the chance of the United States acquiring any part of Greenland before 2029 at 8%. The more plausible outcome is expanded basing or access rights, not a formal transfer of sovereignty or land ownership.

My independent view is that exactly two Supreme Court confirmations is possible but not the most likely outcome, and the market looks somewhat too optimistic on that specific number. I put the chance of exactly two at 24%, with the modal outcomes still being zero or one confirmation.

Hyperliquid has a credible path to $90 before the end of 2026, but the current market price looks a bit too optimistic given how much continued bullish momentum is still required. I would put the chance of a Yes outcome at 68%.

The most likely outcome is still No, because the baseline macro outlook remains growth-positive and the recession threshold requires either two negative GDP quarters or an NBER recession call by the Q4 2026 advance GDP release. Yes is plausible but remains a minority scenario given current forecasts and market pricing.

I think a 2027 recession is more likely than the market implies, but still not the base case. My independent estimate is 38%, reflecting a meaningful downside risk from valuation shocks, tightening financial conditions, and delayed effects from today’s investment and labor dynamics.

The market’s 7% Yes price looks too low, but the threshold is still meaningfully below the current 30-year yield near 5.35%, so the most likely outcome remains No. A Yes outcome is plausible if growth or inflation softens enough for long rates to fall sharply, but that requires a sizable move from current levels.

I think the Bears are more likely than not to leave Soldier Field in some form, but the chance that the destination is specifically a new Illinois site is closer to a coin flip than the market implies. Indiana remains a serious contender, and the risk that the process drags beyond the 2028 opener is still material.

I assess a low probability that Trump will both be impeached and removed before his term ends, with the main obstacle being the very high Senate conviction threshold even if a future House were to act. The market looks materially too bullish on the Yes side given how much political control would need to change and how much evidence of removal-level support would be required.

A completed purchase of Greenland, even of a partial area or sovereign slice, still looks very unlikely. The more plausible path is continued pressure, investment interest, or a limited strategic arrangement that falls short of an actual purchase.

Scheffler is still the best long-shot candidate in golf to complete the career Grand Slam, but the event is still meaningfully unlikely because he must not only stay healthy and elite, but also convert one or more majors before the cutoff. My independent estimate is higher than the market’s, at 14%, because the market looks too dismissive of his sustained major-winning baseline.

I think the chance that Trump actually regains U.S. ownership or formal control of the Panama Canal is low, around 12%. The rhetoric is real, but the evidence points to leverage, security cooperation, and signaling rather than any plausible legal transfer.

Trump invoking the Insurrection Act is still a low-probability event, but the combination of his stated willingness to use extraordinary force, recurring election-security rhetoric, and plausible unrest scenarios makes it more likely than the market implies. I put the chance at 24%.

Congress is genuinely negotiating a bipartisan federal AI safety bill, which keeps a Yes outcome alive, but the calendar is very tight and the bill is still unfinished. The current market price looks somewhat low only if negotiations suddenly harden into text, yet the balance of evidence still favors No.

Arsenal are a live contender, but the market’s 55.5% Yes price looks a bit aggressive for a league title that depends on form, injuries, and rival strength over an entire season. A fair assessment is that Arsenal have a strong chance, but not a majority-level one close to the current implied price.

Scott Jennings is a live contender, but the field remains genuinely open and the lack of any formal selection keeps this from being a strong favorite. I put his independent chance at 31%, modestly above the current market but still well below a coin flip.

The CDU has a real path to finishing first, but it is not the polling favorite. The race appears extremely tight with Die Linke often matching or slightly edging the CDU, so a CDU win is plausible but still below even odds.

I put the chance that Elon Musk visits Mars before August 1, 2099 at 18%. The market’s 10% looks somewhat low, because the question allows a very long time horizon and Musk has a strong personal incentive to make the trip if Starship and human Mars logistics ever become routine.

The Bank of Russia is somewhat more likely than not to keep rates unchanged in October, but a small cut remains a real possibility if inflation and the updated forecast cooperate. I would put the chance of a decrease at 42%.

Boeing looks more likely than not to clear 640 deliveries, but the margin is not comfortable. The company has enough momentum and backlog to get there, yet it still needs a strong finish with no meaningful disruption in the final four months.

Robinhood is growing, but the latest disclosed pace still looks too slow to clear 30.2 million funded customers by year-end 2026. I put the Yes probability at 35%, with the main risk being that the market may be underestimating a late-year acceleration in customer acquisition.

Democrats remain the clear favorite to win the House, but the margin is not secure enough to treat the outcome as locked. The market price of 88.5% looks directionally right and perhaps slightly optimistic, so a high-probability Democratic win is the best assessment.

A qualifying senior-level US-Iran meeting before September 30 looks more likely than not to fail to materialize, even though diplomatic contact remains active. The market’s high Yes price is broadly justified because current reporting shows discussion and signaling, but not a confirmed bilateral in-person round that clearly meets the rules.

Merz is under serious political pressure, but the evidence so far points more to instability than to a confirmed exit. I think the market is a bit too high on the chance of him being out by year-end, though not dramatically so.

Andrew Oldham is a credible future Supreme Court candidate, but the current evidence does not support him as the most likely next justice. I put his independent probability at 14%, with James Ho and D. John Sauer looking somewhat stronger on the present shortlist dynamics.

Trump has a meaningful path to a third impeachment if Democrats retake the House in 2026 or if a major scandal energizes a majority, but the current Congress is still not there. I put the odds modestly below the market because the House vote just showed support is real but not yet close to a winning coalition.

Alibaba is a strong favorite to finish with the top Chinese model at the October check, but the lead is not secure. The market is pricing in its current frontier position, while rivals like Z.ai and Moonshot still have a realistic path to overtake it on the specific leaderboard used for resolution.

Ethereum reaching $3,000 by the end of 2026 looks slightly more likely than not, but it is still a close call because the move requires a meaningful breakout from a heavy resistance zone. I would place the probability modestly above the current market price at 56%.

I think Base is more likely than not to stay above a $500M FDV one day after launch, but the edge is not huge because early launch valuations can fade quickly. My estimate is modestly bullish versus a coin-flip, with meaningful risk that the token briefly clears the level and then falls back below it by the observation time.

I think the most likely 2036 outcome is moderate positive growth, centered in the 1.6% to 2.5% band. The market is a bit too pessimistic about the chance that growth lands in one of those middle buckets rather than at zero or below.

The Hike–Pause–Hike path is plausible but not the base case. The market and analyst consensus lean more toward only two hikes or a different sequence, so the Yes outcome looks below coin-flip odds.

The market is correctly leaning strongly toward Yes because the 30-year yield is already very close to 5.40% and only needs a small additional move to trigger. I still think the chance is a bit lower than the current price implies, but it remains highly likely that the threshold gets touched before year-end.

Elon Musk is more likely than not to exceed 40 counted X posts over this three-day window, given his recent cadence and the market’s own expectation of a fairly active period. I estimate a modest chance of fewer than 40 posts, around 18%, mainly if he has an unusually quiet weekend or shifts attention away from X.

Marine Le Pen has a clear path to the runoff and a plausible route to victory, but the two-round structure and her still-substantial runoff vulnerability keep this below a coin flip. The current market price looks reasonable, though the polling tailwinds make her chances meaningfully higher than a typical challenger’s.

I estimate a low but non-trivial chance that the U.S. invades Iran before the end of 2026. The market’s 16.5% Yes price looks somewhat rich if the threshold is a true territorial-control invasion, but elevated regional tension keeps the risk above a purely symbolic level.

NVIDIA remains the favorite to finish 2026 as the largest company, but the margin is not secure because its valuation is already extremely high and any sharp multiple compression could let Apple or Alphabet catch up. I would price the Yes outcome slightly below the market, but still clearly above even odds.

I think the most likely outcome is still no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump’s term. The public record shows diplomacy, security cooperation, and alternative investment commitments, not a credible path to sovereignty transfer.

Bayern München are a very strong favorite at home and the market is pricing in a near-certain win. The evidence supports a high Yes probability, though not quite as high as the market implies because even elite favorites can slip in a single Bundesliga match.

CMI has a live, high-profile claim under review, but the institute has not made any formal declaration and historically moves cautiously. I think a year-end official “solved” declaration is still unlikely, though not impossible if the review process moves unusually fast.

I put the chance of a Zelenskyy-Putin meeting before Jan. 1, 2027 at about 12%. Zelenskyy is signaling openness, but the Kremlin is rejecting the current venue and Putin’s attendance remains unconfirmed, which keeps the path to any face-to-face meeting very narrow.

A further Fed hike in the remaining 2026 meetings looks more likely than not, with policy guidance and market pricing both leaning toward at least one more increase. The main uncertainty is timing, not direction, so I place the Yes probability slightly below the market price but still high.

Andy Burnham is likely to speak at length in PMQs, but saying “Mr Speaker” 30 or more times is still a fairly high bar. I think the market is slightly underpricing the chance of an unusually long, interruption-heavy exchange, but the most likely outcome remains No.