Edges for Sep 17, 2026

I assess a high likelihood that the market’s Yes outcome occurs, because the available evidence suggests USAID has already been functionally eliminated during Trump’s term and remaining obstacles look mostly legal or semantic rather than operational. The main uncertainty is whether the market resolves “eliminated” as formal statutory repeal versus de facto shutdown and absorption into State.

The evidence favors New Hampshire not being the first Democratic contest in 2028. Recent calendar reporting points to South Carolina first, with New Hampshire early but not earliest.

BbY WOW has strong momentum and could plausibly land at number two, but the U.S. streaming evidence still suggests it is more likely to sit just behind a stronger domestic leader rather than clearly control the runner-up spot. I would price a moderate chance rather than a favorite outcome.

Anthropic looks more likely to IPO first, with OpenAI openly signaling delay and ruling out 2026. The market’s heavy Yes pricing appears somewhat overstated given the current evidence.

Samuel Alito resigning before Trump’s term ends looks meaningfully less likely than the market suggests. He is still actively serving, there is no resignation signal in the news, and justices generally do not leave office absent health issues or a carefully timed retirement.

The most likely outcome is that no qualifying Millennium Prize Problem is formally announced as solved by an eligible AI lab in 2026. The headline Navier-Stokes claim does not count for this market, and the remaining window for a clean qualifying announcement is still short.

Trump has already moved from distancing language into openly dismissive public comments about Tucker Carlson, which makes another qualifying insult before September 30 fairly likely. The market is already high, but the ongoing rupture and Carlson’s continued visibility still support a Yes outcome above three-quarters.

Democrats look like the likelier party to take the House in 2026, mainly because midterms usually punish the president’s party and the chamber is likely to be closely divided. Still, the current market price seems too optimistic, so I would shade the probability lower than the market implies.

Anthropic is the current frontrunner on at least one relevant public leaderboard, but the lead is narrow and benchmark-dependent. I think Anthropic is still the most likely company to finish October in first place, though the chance is meaningfully lower than the market implies.

I put the odds meaningfully above the market because there is now a live, forced impeachment process aimed at a Cabinet member, and the window before January 1 is long enough for a post-midterm political shift to matter. Still, the current GOP control of the House keeps this from being a high-probability event.

I think Boeing is more likely than not to finish 2026 below 640 commercial airplane deliveries. The market looks too optimistic on the pace of recovery, and I put the chance of an above-640 outcome at 43%.

I think Section IV of the 25th Amendment is still unlikely to be formally used during Trump's presidency, though the probability is not zero given his age, volatility, and the possibility of a major crisis. My independent estimate is materially below the market, around 12%.

My independent view is that 2035 U.S. real GDP growth is most likely to land in the low-to-mid 2% range, with 2.1% to 2.5% the single most probable outcome. I give some weight to a 2.6% to 3.0% outcome, but I think the market is still too anchored to a low-growth baseline and underprices moderate productivity upside.

The chance that Trump invokes the Insurrection Act during his presidency looks meaningfully higher than the market price implies, but still far from likely. A reasonable independent estimate is 28%, reflecting repeated public threats and a governing style that favors aggressive domestic force use, tempered by legal, political, and practical constraints.

OpenAI has enough recent momentum and reported internal results to make another announcement plausible, but the combination of verification uncertainty, reputational caution, and a very short deadline keeps the chance modest. I would price this below a one-in-three event, slightly above the current market.

Elon Musk visiting Mars in his lifetime is plausible, but the market looks too pessimistic given his age, resources, and long-standing commitment to the mission. I estimate a materially higher chance than the current price implies, though the event still depends on a difficult technical and biological chain of events.

The chance that the United States acquires any part of Canada before 2029 is extremely low. Even under a highly permissive reading of “acquire,” this would require an extraordinary geopolitical rupture that is far outside normal policy odds.

The market is heavily tilted toward a domestic opening at or above $50 million, so the chance of a below-$50 million result looks low. The current tracking range has moved upward enough that a sub-$50 million finish now requires the film to land near the lower end of estimates or underperform on turnout.

The most likely outcome is no purchase, because acquiring even part of Greenland would require an extraordinary diplomatic, legal, and political breakthrough that has almost no historical precedent. Trump’s interest in Greenland keeps the probability above zero, but I still put it well below the market price.

The most likely outcome is No. Even with Trump’s historic interest in the Panama Canal as a symbolic issue, actually “taking it back” would require extraordinary legal, diplomatic, and potentially military escalation that is far beyond normal presidential leverage.

The market should still lean heavily No because there is no official merger announcement yet, and the reporting so far describes only speculation and non-committal comments. While Elon Musk sometimes creates surprise corporate narratives, the remaining time window is short and the procedural hurdles for a real merger announcement are substantial.

The department is being aggressively hollowed out, but true abolition still depends on Congress and remains materially harder than administrative downsizing. I estimate a moderate chance of formal elimination before January 20, 2029, higher than the market’s current price but still below even odds.

A new Drake album by September 30 looks unlikely, but not impossible. The market’s pricing already reflects a low-probability release, and the absence of confirming news makes No the stronger outcome.

I think the chance the U.S. acquires any part of Greenland before 2029 is low, but not zero. The most plausible path is expanded basing or access rights, which is meaningfully short of sovereignty transfer or formal acquisition.

I estimate a 34% chance of a U.S. recession in 2027, modestly above the market’s 25% Yes price. Recession risk is real over a full year, but absent a clear current downturn signal, 2027 still looks more likely than not to be avoided.

Starbucks looks likely to finish 2026 above 41,800 global stores. The reported Q3 base and the company’s own 2026 net-new store guidance both point to a comfortable margin above the threshold if execution stays on track.

Spain looks like a leading contender rather than a dominant lock, with a strong defending-champion profile and host-country advantages, but the field is still wide enough that the true win probability is well below a coin flip. My independent estimate is 18% for Spain to win the 2030 World Cup, above the market’s 11% and consistent with them being one of several realistic favorites.

I estimate a 22% chance that Zelenskyy and Putin meet before Jan. 1, 2027. The market’s 15% Yes price looks a bit too low because even a small opening for mediated talks or a deconfliction encounter can create a plausible path to a face-to-face meeting.

I put the probability of the Supreme Court overturning marriage equality before 2029 at 14%. The risk is real because the Court’s conservative majority is open to revisiting old precedents, but there is still a substantial gap between speculative interest and a successful overruling.

Anthropic looks like the frontrunner, and the market is already pricing that in heavily. I agree Yes is favored, but the chance of a late leaderboard flip is still meaningful enough that I would leave a small but non-trivial No probability.

The market’s Yes price implies a meaningful chance of a drop to $700, but the recent news flow and technical framing point more toward sustained strength or only a moderate pullback. My assessment is that Zcash is more likely to stay above $700 than to hit it by year-end 2026.

A 5%+ quarterly GDP print during 2025–2028 looks possible but still unlikely. The economy appears to be expanding at a steady, mid-cycle pace, and reaching that threshold would probably require a large temporary boost rather than a true boom.

PSG look like a genuine contender, but the market price implies they are still much more likely to miss than win the title. Their early dominance and elite squad quality support a meaningful Yes chance, yet the Champions League format and the strength of rival clubs keep the probability well below one quarter.

Merz is under real political pressure, but the current evidence still looks more like a leadership crisis than a near-term exit. I put the chance that he is out as chancellor by year-end 2026 at 25%.

Manchester City are a strong favorite and should win this match the vast majority of the time. Norwich would need a major upset or an unusually rotated City lineup to change that outlook, so the Yes side is justified at a high probability.

The market is pricing in a low probability, and that looks broadly fair given the venue denials and apparent permit problems. Still, the chance is not negligible because organizers are still active and a relocation within Russia remains possible before the deadline.

Tyler Robinson is still at the indictment and pretrial stage, so a homicide conviction is far from certain, but the case is serious enough that a conviction remains meaningfully possible before the July 2027 deadline. I estimate a somewhat higher chance than the current market implies, mainly because the charge is severe and prosecutors appear committed to trial.

My base case is that U.S. real GDP growth in 2033 lands in the 1.1% to 1.5% range, with a meaningful but smaller chance of a slightly stronger 1.6% to 2.0% outcome. The market is close to fair, but I give a modest edge to the lower of those two moderate-growth buckets because structural trend growth is still likely to dominate the AI upside narrative by 2033.

The odds that Trump actually ends the Federal Reserve before January 20, 2029 are extremely low. He may attack the Fed rhetorically or try to reshape it, but abolishing it would require an extraordinary political and legal sequence that is very unlikely to happen.

China overtaking the U.S. in nominal GDP by 2030 looks unlikely, because the starting gap is still very large and China would need both sustained faster real growth and a favorable currency path. I estimate a Yes probability of 12%, a bit below the market’s 14% but broadly aligned with the consensus view that this is a low-probability outcome.

I think the Fed is more likely than the market implies to leave rates unchanged in December 2027, with the main alternatives being a modest cut rather than any hike. A hold is still the modal outcome, but the path to a 2027 hike looks comparatively weak given the evidence provided.

Elon Musk is still likely to tweet heavily over a two-day window, so the market’s No side is justified, but the Yes outcome is not negligible because a sub-40 count only requires an average below about 20 posts per day. I think the chance of fewer than 40 total posts is somewhat higher than the market implies, but still clearly a minority outcome.

The Bank of Russia is somewhat more likely than not to keep rates unchanged in October, but a small cut remains a real possibility if inflation and the updated forecast cooperate. I would put the chance of a decrease at 42%.

The market is correctly leaning strongly toward Yes because the 30-year yield is already very close to 5.40% and only needs a small additional move to trigger. I still think the chance is a bit lower than the current price implies, but it remains highly likely that the threshold gets touched before year-end.

Marine Le Pen has a clear path to the runoff and a plausible route to victory, but the two-round structure and her still-substantial runoff vulnerability keep this below a coin flip. The current market price looks reasonable, though the polling tailwinds make her chances meaningfully higher than a typical challenger’s.

I estimate a low but non-trivial chance that the U.S. invades Iran before the end of 2026. The market’s 16.5% Yes price looks somewhat rich if the threshold is a true territorial-control invasion, but elevated regional tension keeps the risk above a purely symbolic level.

The CDU has a real path to finishing first, but it is not the polling favorite. The race appears extremely tight with Die Linke often matching or slightly edging the CDU, so a CDU win is plausible but still below even odds.

Alibaba remains the leading Chinese contender and is still shipping strong Qwen releases, but the evidence does not show a lock on first place at the September 30 check. I think the market is pricing in a bit too much certainty, though Alibaba is still the most likely winner.

The market is broadly right to price this as a low-probability event, but not quite low enough. My independent estimate is that the bear case for Trump happens in 2026 at about 15%, reflecting meaningful downside risk from legal, political, or health shocks without assuming they are likely.

I assess the chance of Trump expanding the H-1B/high-skill immigration regime as low, but not negligible, because the administration’s current posture is clearly restrictive and expansion would require a meaningful policy reversal. My independent probability is slightly below the market, at 17%.

Bayern München are a very strong favorite at home and the market is pricing in a near-certain win. The evidence supports a high Yes probability, though not quite as high as the market implies because even elite favorites can slip in a single Bundesliga match.