Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

The strongest case for impeachment is procedural rather than substantive: there is still ample time before January 2029, Trump has already been impeached twice, and the House just showed a sizeable minority willing to support a new impeachment effort. That means the topic is not fringe, and if the political environment changes after the 2026 midterms, a majority could emerge quickly. In a polarized era, impeachment is often driven less by new evidence than by which party controls the House and whether leadership decides the issue is worth the fight.

The strongest case against impeachment is that the current House vote was not close to advancing articles, and leadership chose to table the resolution. That suggests the present Congress does not have the votes, and impeachment would require either a Democratic House majority or a major shock that changes member incentives. Even then, impeachment is a high-cost vote, so many members would need to believe the political and evidentiary case is overwhelming enough to justify it.

Compared with the market price, I think 67% is somewhat too aggressive. The market seems to be pricing in a fairly high probability that Democrats win the House and then decide to impeach, but that chain still requires multiple steps to break right. A price in the low 60s better reflects the combination of time remaining, a plausible but not assured House flip, and the fact that the current impeachment push has support but not a majority.