Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

I think there is a modest edge to the opening weekend finishing under $50 million, but it is far from certain. The current tracking cluster sits close to the line, so a result just above or just below $50 million remains the most plausible range.

I think the bull case for Trump in 2026 is meaningfully more likely than the market implies, though still far from assured. My estimate is that there is roughly a 38% chance the favorable Trump-and-markets narrative remains intact through 2026.

Alibaba looks like a strong contender and may well hold the top Chinese slot by the end of September, but the lead is not secure. The market price appears higher than the evidence warrants because the frontier among Chinese models is still moving quickly and could flip on a late update.