Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

The latest reporting is materially unfavorable to a Yes outcome if Yes means OpenAI IPOs first. Sam Altman’s September 2026 remarks made clear that OpenAI does not intend to go public in 2026, and the company’s own posture has been framed as preserving flexibility rather than signaling an imminent debut. By contrast, Anthropic is repeatedly described as being on a faster IPO track, with a confidential filing and reporting around a possible near-term roadshow and listing window. That combination makes Anthropic the more plausible first mover on the evidence available today.

The main argument for Yes is that OpenAI has already taken a confidential S-1 step, which at least keeps the door open to moving quickly once conditions are right. OpenAI also has far greater scale and market attention, so if it chose to accelerate, it could potentially outpace Anthropic. But the public signals matter more than optionality here, and the clearest public signal is delay, not acceleration. OpenAI’s management has not just been noncommittal; it has actively pushed the timing back.

Against that, Anthropic appears to have the stronger near-term cadence, and the market appears to be discounting that too little. If the question is which company IPOs first, the current information strongly favors Anthropic. The market’s 92% Yes price looks too high unless there is some alternative interpretation of Yes that is not obvious from the prompt. Based on the disclosed context alone, I would treat the market as significantly mispriced and lean decisively toward No.