US real GDP growth in 2036?

The evidence points to a long-run base case of continued expansion rather than stagnation. Major forecasters cited in the summary expect growth to remain positive through the late 2020s, with S&P Global explicitly projecting U.S. real GDP to keep rising through 2036 and no recession in its forecast horizon. That does not prove 2036 growth will be strong, but it does make a zero-or-below outcome less likely than the market appears to assume. In a mature economy, trend growth usually settles into a modest range driven by labor force growth, productivity, and inflation-adjusted demand, which makes the middle buckets the natural center of gravity.

The distribution should be tilted toward the 1.6% to 2.5% region because that is where long-run developed-economy growth often clusters when no major crisis is present. The recent forecasts cited are not dramatic, but they are consistent with a stable, non-recessionary environment and medium-term resilience. The 2.1% to 2.5% bucket also has real support if productivity stays healthy and policy does not become persistently restrictive. At the same time, the farther-above-3% outcomes should remain secondary because sustained high growth is hard to hold for an advanced economy over a decade-long horizon.

Against that, there is meaningful uncertainty from demographics, debt burdens, technology diffusion, and the possibility of one or more recessions before 2036. Those factors justify keeping some weight on the lower buckets, including the zero-or-below case, since a specific annual growth print in 2036 can be distorted by cycle timing. Still, I think the current market overweights the downside relative to the evidence provided, especially given the explicit forecast continuity through 2036 and the absence of recession in the cited outlooks.