Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?

My baseline view is that this is plausible but still far from likely. The main reason to avoid a very low number is the extraordinary time horizon: there are more than seven decades left, and Musk has repeatedly framed Mars as a defining mission of SpaceX and, by extension, his own legacy. If human Mars travel becomes operational at any point in the next several decades, it would be surprising if Musk never attempted a visit, especially given his public identity around making humanity multiplanetary.

At the same time, the obstacles are substantial. The provided context makes clear that Starship is still missing critical capabilities such as in-space refueling, and the difference between “eventual human Mars missions” and “Elon Musk personally goes” is huge. He would need to remain alive, healthy, willing, and operationally eligible through a long sequence of technical milestones, company decisions, and regulatory hurdles. Even if SpaceX lands people on Mars, a first wave could easily exclude him for safety, age, or strategic reasons.

Compared with the current market price of 10%, I think the market is somewhat skeptical of the long-run optionality embedded in the question. A 10% price implies a very low chance that all of the following align: SpaceX solves interplanetary transport, a Mars mission happens, Musk is still around and inclined to go, and the trip is deemed safe enough for him to join. That is not impossible, but it seems slightly too pessimistic given Musk’s past willingness to take high-profile risks and his repeated public commitment to Mars. Still, the uncertainty is so extreme that the market is not wildly wrong; the fair probability is probably in the teens rather than something like 40% or 50%.