Bank of Russia decision in October?

The most important fact is that the Bank of Russia has just held the key rate at 14% in September and described its stance as neutral rather than openly easing. That means October is not starting from a strong dovish commitment; instead, the bank is pausing to reassess the inflation outlook, the budget path, and the durability of recent disinflation. In other words, a cut is still on the table, but the burden of proof is on the data to justify it. The market’s current pricing, with No favored at 63%, reflects this basic asymmetry and is consistent with a cautious central bank that has not pre-announced another step down.

There are real arguments for a cut in October. Officials have explicitly said October will be a forecast-review meeting, and they are evaluating how much room exists for lower rates. The earlier July forecast reportedly left open both a year-end hold and a small reduction, which suggests that internal policy planning has not ruled out easing. If inflation momentum continues to improve, if demand cools further, and if the updated fiscal outlook looks less stimulative than feared, the bank could decide that a modest cut is appropriate as a signal that the tightening phase is receding. Because the September meeting only paused after a long easing cycle, October is the kind of meeting where the next move could easily be down if incoming numbers cooperate.

The counterargument is that the Bank of Russia has strong reasons to wait. Recent reporting points to persistent inflation pressure, including price growth, fuel disruptions, and elevated state spending, all of which make the bank wary of cutting too soon. The new budget and macro forecast appear especially important, and if they imply a looser fiscal backdrop or stronger demand, the central bank may prefer to preserve its optionality rather than risk reigniting inflation. Since the September decision was a hold, not a cut, the most natural base case is another hold unless there is a clear enough improvement in the inflation trajectory. That is why the market leans No, and why the fair probability of a rate decrease is meaningfully below 50% even though it is not low.