Edges for Aug 6, 2026

The supplied Bonbast-style free-market readings point to USD being below 1.7M IRR, so Yes looks substantially more likely than the current market price implies. The main caveat is unit and series confusion, not the underlying direction of the rate.

I think there is a strong chance 2026 becomes a recognizable bear-case year for Trump because multiple legal and institutional fights are already lined up to produce visible setbacks. The market’s single-digit yes price looks too low given how many independent downside catalysts are active.

Jagiellonia do have a real home-win path, but the broader pricing and matchup signals point to a much closer contest than the market implies. My estimate is that Jagiellonia win in regulation about 37% of the time, with Rangers or a draw more likely than the current market price suggests.

United Russia is likely to remain the dominant party in total seats, but this market is about which party gains the most seats versus its current baseline. On that definition, a Yes outcome looks unlikely because United Russia is starting from a very high seat count and current projections point to losses rather than gains.

I think the market is overestimating the chance that OpenAI IPOs first. The reported timing advantage now appears to favor Anthropic, so my independent probability for OpenAI first is only about 29%.

The most likely outcome is that Grok 4.6 does get released publicly by the deadline, but the timing is still tight enough that a slip of a few days remains a real possibility. The latest statements are supportive, yet they are still phrased as approximate timing rather than a locked launch announcement.

I think Barron Trump is unlikely to receive a presidential pardon before January 21, 2029, because there is no known legal exposure or public indication that such a pardon is being considered. My independent estimate is well below the market price, in the low teens.

USAID looks more likely than not to be eliminated by the end of Trump’s term, mainly because it is already being hollowed out and folded into the State Department. The biggest uncertainty is whether the market resolves on practical dismantling or on formal legal abolition.

I think Alito is meaningfully less likely to resign during Trump’s term than the market suggests. Age and the strategic appeal of a Trump-era replacement make it possible, but the absence of any concrete exit signal and his continued active role point to a sub-50% chance.

Alibaba is the current frontrunner among Chinese AI labs after Qwen3.8-Max’s launch, but the lead is not locked in and the market looks too confident at 90%. I think Alibaba has a solid edge, though late-August competition could still flip the ranking.

Beef is modestly favored to finish with 0 or 1 Primetime Emmy, but the edge is not large because it still has credible upside in the biggest races. The most likely outcome is one win, while a two-plus win result remains a real possibility.

Traffic has improved from the trough but remains far below a 60-vessel 7-day average, so I think the market is overpricing a full return to normal by year-end. I put the Yes chance below the current price because it likely takes a major security de-escalation or diplomatic breakthrough to clear the threshold.

Impeachment before Jan 2029 is plausible but not the base case. I estimate a 43% chance, with the main hurdle being House control and the need for a fresh triggering scandal that sustains bipartisan support.

I estimate only a low single-digit to mid-single-digit chance that the U.S. acquires any part of Greenland before 2029. Trump’s rhetoric keeps a tail risk alive, but the legal, diplomatic, and political barriers to an actual territorial transfer are overwhelming.

July CPI has a plausible path into the low 3s, but getting all the way to 3.1% or below still looks like a stretch from a June reading of 3.5%. No remains the likelier outcome, though Yes is more plausible than the current market price suggests.

Solana has a credible path to $140, but it needs a near-doubling from current levels in a relatively short window, so the base rate is still materially below 50%. I think the market is too pessimistic, yet the most likely outcome remains a finish under the threshold unless the crypto complex enters a strong late-2026 rally.

Arc has enough token-related signaling to make a launch plausible, but there is still no clear confirmation that a publicly transferable governance token will exist by June 30, 2027. I rate the chance below the market price because the available information still leaves a lot of room for delay, redesign, or no token at all.

I think it is very likely Greenland is still not acquired by the end of Trump’s term. Trump’s rhetoric keeps a small tail risk alive, but the legal, diplomatic, and practical barriers are overwhelming.

The Panama Canal is overwhelmingly likely to remain under Panamanian sovereignty, so I put only a small chance on Trump actually “taking it back” in any literal sense. The main upside for Yes is a coercive deal or operational concession, not a real transfer of ownership or control.

I estimate only a low single-digit chance that Trump is both impeached and removed before his term ends, around 4%. The market appears too high unless a major, unexpected political or legal shock changes congressional behavior.

Robinhood looks slightly more likely than not to clear 30.2 million funded customers in 2026. The company is only 1.8 million customers away, and the recent pace of roughly 1 million additions per quarter makes the threshold reachable if growth stays even moderately healthy.

US real GDP growth in 2036 looks most likely to cluster near the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% long-run anchor, with the 1.6% to 2.5% range carrying the bulk of the probability. I think the market is giving too much weight to extreme tail outcomes and not quite enough to the middle buckets.

Trump has a plausible path to a favorable 2026, but the current evidence is still more negative than positive overall. I put the Yes outcome at 18%, above the market because the downside is already well recognized, yet well below even odds because the legal and political headwinds remain substantial.

Infantino is under real pressure, but pressure alone is not the same as a forced exit, and FIFA incumbents usually survive unless a clear replacement path or overwhelming federation revolt emerges. I think the chance he is out by December 31, 2026 is meaningfully below the market price, though not negligible.

Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is possible but still very unlikely, because it requires extraordinary bipartisan coordination and a truly undeniable incapacity crisis. I estimate a materially lower probability than the market, at 15%, with the market likely overweighting age and volatility relative to the institutional hurdles.

The market is more likely than not to resolve No, because recent national home-price measures are still above $419,000 and would need a noticeable decline by September 30 to flip. High mortgage rates and seasonal softening help the Yes case, but not enough to make it the favorite.

Ethereum reaching $3,000 by the end of 2026 looks possible but still more likely than not to fall short. I would place the chance of a Yes outcome at 26%, modestly above the current market price because the upside case is credible, but well below even odds because the remaining time window is limited and the threshold is not far enough above current expectations to be secure.

I think the chance Trump actually buys at least part of Greenland is low, around 8%, because the political and legal barriers to a real purchase remain enormous. The market looks somewhat too optimistic, likely confusing rhetorical “control” with an actual transfer of sovereignty or territory.

I put the chance that Trump invokes the Insurrection Act during his presidency at about 30%. The market’s 20% looks somewhat low because he has already signaled willingness to keep the option alive, but the act remains a politically and legally costly step that is still more likely not to happen than happen.

The odds of a verified $250 billion spending reduction by 2028 are meaningfully above the market price, but still well below even-money territory. Trump has real avenues for cuts, yet turning proposals into a confirmed aggregate reduction of that size remains difficult.

NVIDIA is still the leading contender and remains near the top of global market cap rankings, but the margin is thin enough that a strong Apple rebound or a sharp AI multiple reset could flip the outcome by year-end. I put the yes probability a bit below the market price because this is a close race with substantial volatility left.

I make a new location in Illinois a slight favorite, but not by much. The relocation process looks real, yet Illinois financing and political execution risk are enough that the market may be a bit too confident.

The current release date still looks real, but GTA 6 remains the kind of massive, high-stakes project that can slip again. I think the chance of another delay is meaningfully above the market price, but still well below a coin flip.

Scottie Scheffler is still a genuine contender to finish the career Grand Slam, but the deadline leaves him only a limited number of major opportunities. I make the chance materially higher than the market’s 5%, though still clearly a long shot at 14%.

Anthropic is still the most plausible winner, but the advantage is not as locked in as the market price implies. I would make Anthropic a solid favorite, just not an overwhelming one.

I assign only a very small chance that the U.S. acquires any part of Canada before 2029. The institutional, legal, and political barriers are so extreme that even with Trump-era rhetoric, this is still a near-tail event.

Anthropic looks like the clear front-runner, but the market is still resolving on a math-specific leaderboard that can diverge from the broader text rankings. I would price a strong Yes case, while leaving meaningful room for a late-month competitor surprise.

Anthropic is the leading candidate because it has recently held or nearly held the top spot on the relevant Arena-style leaderboard, and the market is already pricing in a very high chance of that continuing. The main reason to stay below certainty is that the lead appears narrow and late-month model updates from competitors could still reshuffle the top rank.

I estimate only an 8% chance that the Department of Education is fully eliminated before Jan. 20, 2029. The administration may weaken or reassign pieces of it, but outright abolition still looks politically and procedurally unlikely.

A new state before Trump leaves office is possible but highly unlikely. His rhetoric keeps the idea alive, but the institutional and constitutional hurdles are enormous, so I put the chance at 3%.

NVIDIA is still the favorite to finish August as the world’s largest company by market cap, but the lead is not so large that a sharp move in either NVIDIA or Apple cannot change the result. I make it a strong yes, though a bit less certain than the current market price suggests.

China overtaking the U.S. in nominal GDP by 2030 looks unlikely. The gap is still too large, and China would need several years of unusually strong growth plus a favorable exchange-rate path to pull it off.

Austin is still cooling, and the metro-level figure that best matches the settlement method appears to be near or slightly below the cutoff. But because several broader Austin valuation measures remain above it, I still give No a modest edge.

The second weekend is very likely to come in below 180 million because the film would need only a modestly worse-than-50% drop to clear that bar. The market already reflects that expectation, and I agree that Yes is the more likely outcome.

The market is leaning No, and I agree that Extended is more likely to land below $500M FDV than above it. I estimate a 26% chance of Yes, reflecting meaningful upside if launch demand is unusually strong but a clearer base case below the threshold.

I see a low but non-zero chance of a Trump resignation before the term ends, driven mostly by tail risks rather than any active resignation signal. My independent estimate is meaningfully below the market because the available evidence points to speculation, not a real resignation trajectory.

I think the chance Trump expands high-skill immigration during this term is low, because the clearest current signal is a restrictive fee-and-cost posture rather than any move to widen H-1B access. The market is a bit too optimistic on Yes, though not wildly off.

RFK Jr. is a credible but not dominant candidate to be the next cabinet departure. The pressure points with Trump are real, but the absence of any concrete exit signal and the presence of other vulnerable cabinet members keep this well below a certainty.

I make this 39%, slightly above the market. The deadline is tight, but a public AGI claim is more plausible than many assume because the definition is loose and a few frontier labs are already talking in very short timelines.

Ali Khamenei has a real pathway to the top if a major death or confirmed death event involving him occurs, but that outcome still looks unlikely given the short remaining time and the many other public figures who could generate larger U.S. search volume. I would price this below the market, with a low single-digit to mid-single-digit chance rather than a double-digit one.

A July JOLTS print below 7.1M is possible, but the base case is still a reading just above that threshold. June was close enough that another sharp decline would do it, yet the labor market has not shown the kind of accelerating weakness that would make this outcome likely.

The most plausible interpretation is that this market requires a true invasion in the sense of a military offensive intended to establish control over Iranian territory, and the evidence so far points to air and naval strikes rather than a ground incursion. I therefore think No is more likely than Yes, though the market’s wording leaves some ambiguity that keeps a non-trivial tail risk on Yes.

No Fed rate cuts in 2026 looks more likely than not and is already strongly priced as the consensus outcome. I still leave a meaningful chance of one cut because the Fed has several meetings left and a late-year slowdown could change the picture quickly.

The balance of evidence favors at least one Fed rate hike in 2026, with the market already pricing a better-than-even chance and several officials openly keeping hikes on the table. I would put the probability of Yes modestly above the current market price because inflation persistence and hawkish policy signaling make a late-2026 move plausible.

Andrew Oldham is a credible Supreme Court finalist, but his path still depends on a vacancy and favorable political control. I գնահատ him a bit above the market, with a probability in the low 20s rather than the high teens.

NVIDIA is currently trading like a top-one or top-two megacap, not a third-place company, so the Yes outcome looks unlikely. That said, a sharp relative move over the next month could still push it down to third, so I would not assign a zero chance.

I put 0.0% or below real GDP growth in 2033 at about 8%, a bit below the market’s 12%. The modal outcome is still moderate positive growth, concentrated around the 1.6% to 2.5% range rather than outright stagnation.

I think the chance that Trump actually ends the Federal Reserve before January 2029 is very small, around 4%. He may keep attacking the institution and pushing for control over it, but abolishing it is a far higher bar than reshaping its leadership or policy stance.

Claire Danes is a credible but not leading contender in a competitive limited-series actress field. Her Emmy pedigree gives her a real path, but the current evidence still points to someone else as the more likely winner.

SpaceX has given the market a real late-August target, but it is still tentative and dependent on approval and readiness. I lean slightly toward Yes, though the timing remains close enough that a small delay would easily flip the outcome.