Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

Samuel Alito is 76 and therefore within the age range where a Supreme Court retirement becomes plausible, but age alone is not a strong predictor of resignation on this Court. He remains publicly active in major cases, there is no confirmed retirement or resignation announcement, and recent reporting points more to routine participation and rumor churn than to any genuine transition planning. In practice, that means the evidence supports a real but not dominant chance of departure before January 2029.

The strategic incentive is real: if Alito ever intends to leave, Trump’s term is the cleanest window to lock in a like-minded successor. That said, Supreme Court justices often defer retirement far longer than outside observers expect, especially when there is no health crisis, no obvious institutional pressure, and no public signal of an imminent departure. A justice can also be motivated to stay in place to shape outcomes in the short run, which makes an announced resignation far from automatic.

Compared with the current 68% market price, my read is that the market is too optimistic on a resignation. Traders are likely overweighting age and the possibility of strategic timing, while underweighting the fact that Alito has shown no concrete sign of leaving and that many justices at similar ages remain on the bench for years. I would price this closer to the mid-40s unless new information emerges about health, family circumstances, or an explicit transition decision.