US real GDP growth in 2036?
US real GDP growth in 2036 looks most likely to cluster near the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% long-run anchor, with the 1.6% to 2.5% range carrying the bulk of the probability. I think the market is giving too much weight to extreme tail outcomes and not quite enough to the middle buckets.
Analysis
The best anchor for 2036 is the Federal Reserve’s longer-run real GDP growth projection of 2.0%, and the broader forecast landscape does not show a credible consensus for a sustained break above that level. Recent private and public outlooks for the next several years are mostly clustered around 1.5% to 2.5%, which makes a mid-2% or slightly-below-2% outcome the most natural center of gravity for 2036 as well.
There are real upside arguments, especially if AI-driven capital spending and productivity gains persist longer than expected. But getting to 6.1% or above in a single year would still require an unusually strong combination of productivity, demand, and cyclical rebound, which is historically rare and not the base case suggested by current long-run forecasters.
Compared with the market, I think the center is understated and the tail is somewhat overstated. The current pricing gives only 19% to the 1.6% to 2.0% bucket and 12% to 6.1% or above, but the evidence points to a more concentrated distribution around the 1.6% to 2.5% range and a meaningfully lower chance of a genuine boom-year outcome. If the contract’s Yes corresponds to the middle bucket, I would price it above the market, with the biggest disagreement showing up in the modestly-above-trend outcomes rather than the extreme high-growth tail.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: The official long-run anchor and most credible medium-term forecasts cluster close to 2%, which supports the 1.6% to 2.0% range.
- Arguments for Yes: Current growth is positive and there is still room for productivity-enhancing investment to keep the economy near trend rather than below it.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: The economy could easily drift into the 1.1% to 1.5% range if productivity disappoints or demographics weigh more heavily than expected.
- Arguments against Yes: Extreme upside outcomes are possible but still require an unusually strong and sustained growth regime, making the highest-growth bucket unlikely.
Key drivers
- The Fed’s 2.0% longer-run projection is the strongest available benchmark for 2036 growth.
- AI investment and productivity gains could lift growth above the historical trend, but the effect would need to persist for years to matter in 2036.
- A recessionary or weak-demand environment would push the outcome toward the 1.1% to 1.5% or even subzero buckets.
Risk factors
- Long-horizon GDP forecasts are noisy, and structural breaks can make the 2036 distribution much wider than today’s consensus implies.
- A one-time recession rebound or measurement quirk could produce an unusually high annual growth reading without representing a true long-run regime shift.
Scenarios
Best case
A durable productivity boom, helped by AI and sustained investment, keeps growth in the 2.1% to 2.5% range or even higher, making the center-right buckets dominate.
Most likely
US real GDP growth in 2036 lands near the long-run 2% anchor, with the 1.6% to 2.5% range clearly more likely than either a deep slowdown or a 6%+ boom year.
Worst case
Slower productivity, weaker labor-force growth, or repeated recessions push 2036 growth into the 1.1% to 1.5% bucket or below zero.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6% to 2.0% | 32% | 19% |
| 6.1% or Above | 10% | 12% |
| 1.1% to 1.5% | 18% | 10% |
| 2.1% to 2.5% | 28% | 10% |
| 0.0% or Below | 12% | 8% |
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