Which agencies will Trump eliminate?
USAID looks more likely than not to be eliminated by the end of Trump’s term, mainly because it is already being hollowed out and folded into the State Department. The biggest uncertainty is whether the market resolves on practical dismantling or on formal legal abolition.
Analysis
The strongest evidence points to USAID already losing the core features of an independent agency: operations have been absorbed into the State Department, thousands of employees have exited, and large parts of its program portfolio have been cut. That kind of sustained administrative dismantling usually creates momentum toward a final end state, especially when the White House is committed to the policy and has several years left to finish it.
The main obstacle is that formal elimination is not the same as functional shutdown. If the resolution requires statutory repeal or unmistakable legal abolition, Congress and the courts become meaningful constraints, and an agency can remain on the books even after it has been effectively stripped of mission and personnel. That legal ambiguity is the main reason this is not a near-certainty despite the aggressive unwind already underway.
At the current 29% yes price, the market looks too skeptical if the question is resolved on practical elimination or de facto absorption into State. It is more defensible if traders believe only a formal congressional wipeout counts, but the broader wording and the current trajectory make a yes outcome materially more plausible than the market implies.
Arguments
For
- USAID is already being treated as part of a broader State Department overhaul, which makes a final elimination operationally feasible.
- Large-scale personnel departures and program cuts create a path dependence that makes restoration harder than continued shrinkage.
Against
- If elimination requires formal repeal or explicit congressional authorization, the legal bar is much higher than executive restructuring alone.
- A future political shift, judicial injunction, or appropriations pushback could leave USAID nominally intact even if weakened.
Key drivers
- The administration has already taken concrete steps that reduce USAID to a shell of its former self.
- There is still ample time before the end of the term to finish a merger, reorganization, or final shutdown.
Risk factors
- Congress or the courts could block a true statutory abolition and preserve the agency on paper.
- Resolution uncertainty is high because markets may differ on whether de facto dismantling counts as elimination.
Scenarios
Best case
The administration completes a full merger into the State Department or secures enough political backing to abolish USAID outright, and the market resolves this as a clear yes.
Most likely
USAID continues to be hollowed out and administratively absorbed, with the final resolution depending on whether the market treats that outcome as elimination.
Worst case
USAID remains a legally existing agency through 2029 because Congress or the courts prevent formal abolition, even if many functions are stripped away.
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