Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
I think the market is overestimating the chance that OpenAI IPOs first. The reported timing advantage now appears to favor Anthropic, so my independent probability for OpenAI first is only about 29%.
Analysis
Assuming the Yes outcome means OpenAI goes public before Anthropic, the latest reporting points the other way. OpenAI has taken an important procedural step with a confidential S-1, but the reporting around its timing has drifted later, with multiple sources now suggesting 2027 is more realistic. By contrast, Anthropic is being described as targeting Q4 2026, and there are reports of a confidential filing and early banker outreach, which would put it ahead on the calendar if those plans hold.
The key analytical issue is that filing first is not the same as listing first. OpenAI is larger, more complex, and likely to face more scrutiny around governance, AI safety, and cap table structure, all of which can slow an IPO even after an S-1. Anthropic appears smaller and, based on the reporting, may have a cleaner path to a faster market debut. That makes the reported timing gap meaningful, not just noise.
At a market price of 0.82 for OpenAI first, the market seems to be leaning heavily on OpenAI’s visibility and the fact that it has made the most public process progress. I think that is too optimistic given the recent timing drift and the newer reports suggesting Anthropic is closer to an actual offering window. The market may still be right if Anthropic slips materially or OpenAI accelerates, but on the evidence available today I see this as a clear mispricing in favor of OpenAI first.
Arguments
For
- OpenAI has the more visible and established IPO process, including a confidential S-1, which can support a faster launch if execution goes well.
- If Anthropic encounters fundraising, governance, or market-window delays, OpenAI could still get to market first despite the current reporting.
Against
- Recent reporting increasingly suggests Anthropic is targeting an earlier listing window than OpenAI.
- OpenAI’s expected timing appears to have slipped toward 2027, which weakens the case that it will beat Anthropic.
Key drivers
- Anthropic’s reported IPO target window is earlier, which gives it the timing edge if both plans stay on track.
- OpenAI’s reported window has shifted later, reducing the chance that it beats Anthropic to market.
Risk factors
- Both timelines are unofficial and could change quickly if either company decides to delay or accelerate.
- OpenAI could still overtake Anthropic if its confidential filing translates into an unusually fast offering process.
Scenarios
Best case
Anthropic’s reported 2026 plan slips materially while OpenAI moves faster than expected, allowing OpenAI to list first.
Most likely
Anthropic reaches the market first on an earlier 2026 timetable, while OpenAI’s larger scale and slower timing push its IPO into 2027.
Worst case
Anthropic follows through on a late-2026 IPO while OpenAI remains on a 2027 path, so Anthropic clearly goes first.
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