Edges for Aug 5, 2026

Starbucks looks likely to finish 2026 above 41,800 stores. The company’s reported Q3 base of 41,304 and full-year guidance for 600 to 650 net new coffeehouses leave a meaningful cushion over the threshold.

Trump looks materially more likely than not to have a genuinely adverse 2026, with legal exposure, court fights, and internal political resistance creating several paths to a bad year. The market’s 11% yes price looks far too low unless the event is defined very narrowly.

United Russia is likely to remain the dominant party in total seats, but this market is about which party gains the most seats versus its current baseline. On that definition, a Yes outcome looks unlikely because United Russia is starting from a very high seat count and current projections point to losses rather than gains.

I estimate OpenAI has only about a 30% chance of beating Anthropic to the IPO. Anthropic’s reported late-2026 target and OpenAI’s apparent drift toward 2027 make Anthropic the likelier first mover.

I think the chance Samuel Alito resigns during Trump’s term is materially lower than the market implies. He is old enough that retirement is plausible, but there is still no concrete sign he is preparing to leave, and the Supreme Court’s incentives favor staying unless a clean transition is clearly available.

My assessment is that a Barron Trump pardon is unlikely absent a new legal development. The market looks far too high given there is no known criminal exposure or pending case to justify a pardon.

USAID looks more likely than not to be eliminated by the end of Trump’s term, mainly because it is already being hollowed out and folded into the State Department. The biggest uncertainty is whether the market resolves on practical dismantling or on formal legal abolition.

I think there is a meaningful but still far from dominant chance that Trump gets enough favorable developments in 2026 to justify the bull-case label. My independent probability is well above the market because several different paths to a positive 2026 remain open, even if none is assured.

SK Brann look like the slightly stronger side at home, but this is still a fairly balanced qualifying tie with a real draw risk. I rate Brann to win at 46%, above the market price but short of a true favorite's profile.

I estimate only a low single-digit to mid-single-digit chance that the U.S. acquires any part of Greenland before 2029. Trump’s rhetoric keeps a tail risk alive, but the legal, diplomatic, and political barriers to an actual territorial transfer are overwhelming.

NVIDIA is a meaningful favorite to finish August as the largest company, but the lead is not secure enough to justify extreme confidence. The race still looks volatile enough that a late-month Apple reclaim or a sharp NVIDIA pullback could flip the outcome.

Impeachment before Jan 2029 is plausible but not the base case. I estimate a 43% chance, with the main hurdle being House control and the need for a fresh triggering scandal that sustains bipartisan support.

The Clarity Act has real momentum, but it is still far from guaranteed to become law in 2026. With no Senate floor vote yet and a narrow calendar window, I think the market is still overstating the chance of enactment, though not by a huge amount.

I estimate a moderate chance, around 35%, that Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before the end of his presidency. The odds are meaningfully above the current market price because there are several plausible trigger scenarios and a long remaining time window, but the event still requires a high political and operational threshold.

Section 4 of the 25th Amendment is possible but still very unlikely, because it requires extraordinary bipartisan coordination and a truly undeniable incapacity crisis. I estimate a materially lower probability than the market, at 15%, with the market likely overweighting age and volatility relative to the institutional hurdles.

I put the highest probability on 1.6% to 2.0%, with 2.1% to 2.5% as the main alternative. The market looks too generous to the 6.1%+ tail and somewhat too cautious about a low-2% outcome.

This looks more likely to open above $15M than below it, but the franchise’s past theatrical results keep a real under-$15M path alive. I would price the Yes outcome at 20%.

I estimate only a low single-digit chance that Trump is both impeached and removed before his term ends, around 4%. The market appears too high unless a major, unexpected political or legal shock changes congressional behavior.

Infantino is under real pressure, but the evidence still points more toward survival than exit by year-end. I make the Yes outcome meaningfully possible, but below the current market price because there is still no confirmed resignation, removal, or clean procedural path that looks likely to conclude quickly.

LA28 still looks on track to proceed on its expected summer 2028 timetable, and the July 25 gold-medal threshold appears comfortably attainable if the Games run normally. I would price Yes at 90%.

Anthropic looks like the strongest single candidate right now because it appears to hold or share the top position on the relevant overall leaderboard. Still, the lead is narrow enough that a late-August release or ranking swing could easily change the outcome, so I would price it below the market’s current enthusiasm.

The Panama Canal is overwhelmingly likely to remain under Panamanian sovereignty, so I put only a small chance on Trump actually “taking it back” in any literal sense. The main upside for Yes is a coercive deal or operational concession, not a real transfer of ownership or control.

Arc has a meaningful chance to launch a publicly tradable governance token by June 30, 2027, but the evidence still points to a project that is prioritizing network rollout and institutional readiness before a token. I think the market is slightly optimistic, so I put the chance of Yes at 52%.

I think the chance Trump actually buys at least part of Greenland is low, around 8%, because the political and legal barriers to a real purchase remain enormous. The market looks somewhat too optimistic, likely confusing rhetorical “control” with an actual transfer of sovereignty or territory.

Mallorca winning is possible in a one-off friendly, but PSG look materially stronger on paper and the available pre-match signals point against a home upset. I would price a Mallorca win well below the market, at about 22%.

Robinhood has a better-than-even chance of finishing 2026 above 30.2 million funded customers, mainly because Q2 showed a sharp acceleration from already large scale. I price it slightly above the market, but not by a wide margin.

I put Elon Musk’s chance of visiting Mars before 2099 at 24%. The market looks too skeptical for a question with such a long runway, but this is still far from a sure thing because it depends on both major technical success and Musk personally choosing to take a very high-risk trip.

Ethereum reaching $3,000 by the end of 2026 looks possible but still more likely than not to fall short. I would place the chance of a Yes outcome at 26%, modestly above the current market price because the upside case is credible, but well below even odds because the remaining time window is limited and the threshold is not far enough above current expectations to be secure.

I put the chance of at least one quarter topping 5% annualized GDP growth during 2025-2028 at 19%. The policy mix and current forecasts point to steady but not explosive growth, and 5% quarters are rare without a recession-driven snapback.

The odds of a verified $250 billion spending reduction by 2028 are meaningfully above the market price, but still well below even-money territory. Trump has real avenues for cuts, yet turning proposals into a confirmed aggregate reduction of that size remains difficult.

Alphabet has a real but limited path to finishing first because it is already valued at an enormous scale and near record territory. Still, it must outperform several other mega-caps over a short window, so I think the more likely outcome is that it remains close to the top but not necessarily number one.

The word "people" is very likely to appear frequently in a Joe Rogan episode, and the long, conversational format gives it a good shot at crossing 200 mentions. Still, 200 is a meaningful threshold, so I would price this somewhat below the market’s most optimistic level.

I lean slightly toward Yes, but not by much. Diplomacy has improved the odds of a traffic rebound, yet the Strait is still far below the 60-call threshold and remains vulnerable to renewed disruption.

Scottie Scheffler is still a genuine contender to finish the career Grand Slam, but the deadline leaves him only a limited number of major opportunities. I make the chance materially higher than the market’s 5%, though still clearly a long shot at 14%.

I see a modestly greater-than-even chance that the Fed leaves rates unchanged at the December 2027 meeting, but not as high as the market’s 71% implies. The most likely alternative is some policy move earlier in the cycle that leaves this specific meeting as a pause, though the long horizon makes a hike or cut meaningfully plausible.

RFK Jr. looks like the most plausible single cabinet member to be pushed out next, but the evidence still points more to elevated risk than to an imminent dismissal. I rate his chance meaningfully above the market because the replacement chatter is specific and credible, even though it is not yet confirmed action.

MrBeast is very likely to use at least one of the scale words hundreds, thousands, or millions repeatedly in his next video, because that language is central to his usual large-stakes format. The main uncertainty is whether the exact wording is spoken often enough to clear the 10-plus threshold, but the balance of evidence still favors Yes.

I estimate an 88% chance that the U.S. does not acquire Greenland during Trump's term. The political and legal barriers are so high that only an extraordinary, fully negotiated deal would change the outcome.

I make a new location in Illinois a slight favorite, but not by much. The relocation process looks real, yet Illinois financing and political execution risk are enough that the market may be a bit too confident.

I see a low but non-zero chance of a Trump resignation before the term ends, driven mostly by tail risks rather than any active resignation signal. My independent estimate is meaningfully below the market because the available evidence points to speculation, not a real resignation trajectory.

Anthropic looks like the clear front-runner, but the market is still resolving on a math-specific leaderboard that can diverge from the broader text rankings. I would price a strong Yes case, while leaving meaningful room for a late-month competitor surprise.

A Senate vote before the August recess looks more likely than the market price suggests, but it is still far from assured because the calendar is extremely tight and the bill has not been formally placed on the floor schedule. I put the chance of a recorded vote by the deadline at 40%.

The odds of traffic reaching the required IMF PortWatch threshold by September 30 look below one in three. The strait is still operating well under normal levels, and the recovery needed to clear a 7-day average of 60 is substantial.

Alibaba looks like the current frontrunner after the Qwen3.8-Max launch, and the short time left until resolution makes a reversal less likely than not. Still, the lead is not so dominant that a late-August leap by another Chinese lab can be dismissed.

NVIDIA is clearly in the elite group of the world’s largest companies, but being exactly second-largest on August 31 is a narrow and fragile rank outcome. I think the market is underpricing the chance a bit, yet the more likely result is that NVIDIA ends the month either first or third rather than precisely second.

I see this as a very low-probability event, because there is no sign of any real process to transfer Canadian territory to the United States. My independent estimate is 4%, below the current market price.

My independent view is that U.S. real GDP growth in 2035 is most likely to sit in the 1.6% to 2.5% range, with a mild tilt toward 2.1% to 2.5%. I see materially less probability on outright stagnation or recession than the market’s current setup suggests.

China overtaking the U.S. in nominal GDP by 2030 looks unlikely. The gap is still too large, and China would need several years of unusually strong growth plus a favorable exchange-rate path to pull it off.

Jannik Sinner is the rightful favorite, but not by enough to justify a near-lock assessment. I would put his chance slightly below the current market price because the field is strong, the event is still weeks away, and tennis majors remain highly path-dependent.

The current release date still looks real, but GTA 6 remains the kind of massive, high-stakes project that can slip again. I think the chance of another delay is meaningfully above the market price, but still well below a coin flip.

I expect July annual CPI to remain above 3.1%, with a modest chance that a favorable base effect and another weak monthly print push it to the threshold or below. The market’s very low Yes price looks directionally right, though I think the Yes side is a little more plausible than the price implies.

Lionel Messi attending Cristiano Ronaldo’s wedding looks very unlikely. The market is already pricing a near-certain No, and the available reporting still shows no credible confirmation of attendance.

NVIDIA is currently trading like a top-one or top-two megacap, not a third-place company, so the Yes outcome looks unlikely. That said, a sharp relative move over the next month could still push it down to third, so I would not assign a zero chance.

I think Trump is more likely to restrict than expand high-skill immigration, so the Yes side is weak. A limited expansion is still possible over a long horizon, but it looks like a minority outcome.

NYC is more likely than not to end the period near flat, with a slight tilt toward a small decline over a 0.01% to 0.99% gain. I think the market is a bit too optimistic on the odds of landing in that narrow positive band.

I slightly favor Japan core CPI ending 2026 at or below 1.9%, because the year has started soft enough that the annual average can still stay under the cutoff unless the second half accelerates materially. The recent Tokyo pickup and the BOJ’s higher inflation outlook keep this close, but not enough for me to lean strongly against Yes.

Musk finishing below $600B is possible but still not the most likely outcome. He is already down sharply from recent highs, yet another large decline would be needed in a short window, so I lean to No with a modest chance of Yes.

The no-cut outcome looks more likely than not, because the Fed has already stayed on hold through midyear and recent messaging still centers on inflation risk rather than recession risk. Even so, there is meaningful late-year downside if growth weakens or inflation cools enough to justify one 25 bp cut.

I think there is a meaningful but still minority chance that U.S. CPI prints above 4.5% at least once in 2026. The market looks close to fair, but the most likely outcome is still that inflation stays below the threshold.

This is a genuinely tax-heavy setup, so “Tax” 30+ times is plausible, especially if Trump leans into repeated slogans like “no tax on tips” and “Working Families Tax Cuts.” Still, 30 is a fairly high bar for a single remarks segment, so I make it a modest favorite rather than a lock.