Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?
Andrew Oldham is a credible Supreme Court finalist, but his path still depends on a vacancy and favorable political control. I գնահատ him a bit above the market, with a probability in the low 20s rather than the high teens.
Analysis
Andrew Oldham is a serious candidate because he already has the kind of résumé presidents usually want for a lifetime Supreme Court seat: appellate experience, a strong conservative record, and enough age to offer long tenure. Even so, this market is fundamentally conditional on a vacancy and on which party controls the White House and Senate, and the supplied material shows no public indication that a vacancy, nomination, or confirmation path is already underway.
Among the realistic conservative contenders, Oldham looks stronger than Aileen Cannon because he is a higher-court judge with a more conventional Supreme Court profile, and he may be a little easier to confirm than James Ho because he is less rhetorically combustible. D. John Sauer has the advantage of being Solicitor General and therefore more directly tied to Supreme Court work, while Steven Menashi remains a plausible but somewhat less prominent insider option. If a Republican president is choosing from a vetted list after a vacancy opens, Oldham belongs near the top.
At 19%, the market is not wildly off, but I think it is a bit low for Oldham specifically. The board seems to compress several plausible conservative names together; in my view Oldham offers one of the better blends of ideology, professionalism, and confirmability, so he deserves a modest premium over the quoted price, even though the overall probability remains well below 50% because the vacancy and election path do most of the work.
Arguments
For
- He is a conventional appellate-judge choice with the résumé presidents usually want for a Supreme Court vacancy.
- He likely faces less confirmation friction than more polarizing alternatives.
Against
- The event still requires a vacancy and favorable political control, neither of which is guaranteed.
- Trump or another Republican president could prefer a different loyalist, such as Ho or Sauer.
Key drivers
- A future Republican vacancy would put Oldham inside the core finalist pool.
- His appellate experience and conservative credentials match historical Supreme Court selection patterns.
- He may be more confirmable than some harder-edged alternatives on the board.
Risk factors
- A Democratic president in 2028 would likely eliminate most of his path to the seat.
- Another conservative pick with a stronger loyalty profile or higher-profile role could outcompete him.
Scenarios
Best case
A Supreme Court vacancy opens under a Republican president, Oldham is viewed as the best mix of conservative reliability and confirmability, and he is nominated and confirmed.
Most likely
A vacancy either does not occur or opens under mixed political conditions, and Oldham remains a top-tier contender without ultimately being chosen.
Worst case
No favorable vacancy materializes, or a Democratic president wins in 2028 and selects a different justice, leaving Oldham off the short list entirely.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Oldham | 28% | 19% |
| James Ho | 25% | 18% |
| Aileen Cannon | 10% | 10% |
| D. John Sauer | 23% | 9% |
| Steven Menashi | 14% | 8% |
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