Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
I estimate only a low single-digit chance that Trump is both impeached and removed before his term ends, around 4%. The market appears too high unless a major, unexpected political or legal shock changes congressional behavior.
Analysis
My independent read is that this is a very low-probability event, around 4%. Trump could certainly generate a scandal severe enough to revive impeachment talk, but turning that into both House impeachment and Senate removal requires an extraordinary bipartisan collapse that has not been visible.
The current political environment matters: there is no sign of organized House momentum, no leadership commitment, and no credible path to a two-thirds Senate conviction. The recent 3% pricing for impeachment by end-2026 underscores how weak the near-term trigger looks, and removal is meaningfully harder than impeachment alone.
At 18%, the market looks too optimistic on the chance of this sequence. The price seems to embed generic tail risk from Trump's divisiveness, but that tail risk is mostly about investigations and rhetoric, not the historically rare combination of a successful House vote and a supermajority Senate removal.
Arguments
For
- Trump remains a uniquely polarizing figure, so a major scandal could rapidly create pressure for House action.
- There is still ample time before 2029 for an unexpected legal or political shock to change the odds.
Against
- There is no visible active momentum for impeachment in the House, and current signals are heavily against action.
- Removal is much harder than impeachment and historically requires an unprecedented level of bipartisan defection.
Key drivers
- A credible impeachment effort would require a major new scandal or constitutional crisis that changes congressional incentives quickly.
- Even if the House acts, removal needs two-thirds of the Senate, which is extraordinarily hard in a polarized chamber.
Risk factors
- A severe and well-documented event could make bipartisan defections politically survivable for enough senators.
- A post-midterm shift in congressional control could raise the odds of impeachment, even if removal remains difficult.
Scenarios
Best case
A major scandal or constitutional crisis emerges, the House impeaches with enough support to be credible, and a large bipartisan break in the Senate produces conviction and removal.
Most likely
There is recurring rhetoric, investigations, and periodic calls for impeachment, but no formal impeachment-and-removal outcome before the term ends.
Worst case
No major new shock occurs, impeachment never gains traction in the House, and the Senate never comes close to conviction.
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