Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Leaning No: the latest IMF PortWatch point is only 3 transits on November 8, far below the 60 moving-average threshold and even below the already depressed recent traffic. The security situation and vessel backlogs still point to a prolonged slowdown rather than a quick normalization.
Analysis
On November 12, 2026, the latest IMF PortWatch data still only shows 3 Arrivals of Ships on November 8, which is nowhere near the 60 seven-day-average trigger. Recent commercial counts, escort activity, and anchorage congestion all suggest traffic remains severely disrupted today.
To get a Yes, transit volumes would need to rebound sharply and stay elevated long enough to lift the 7-day average above 60 before December 31. That is possible in theory, but the current evidence shows the opposite: fresh attacks, single-digit to low-double-digit traffic, and no confirmed sustained reopening yet.
Arguments
For
- The resolution rule is only 60 on a 7-day moving average, which is below the pre-crisis level and could be reached if shipping normalizes quickly.
- Military escorts and regional pressure to restore flows could help commercial vessels resume passages more quickly than current counts imply.
Against
- The most recent published PortWatch reading is still just 3, showing no sign of an imminent return to normal traffic.
- Independent traffic indicators remain extremely weak, with single-digit or low-double-digit transits and reports of traffic nearly coming to a halt.
Key drivers
- The latest published IMF PortWatch point is only 3 transits on November 8, which is far too low to support a 60-day average without a very fast rebound.
- Recent reports show traffic still near a standstill, with vessel queues, escort requirements, and weak tanker movement through the strait.
Risk factors
- PortWatch data can lag by several days, so a short-lived rebound could appear later in the published series before the year ends.
- A rapid security improvement or coordinated reopening could push the 7-day average up quickly if transits restart in force.
Scenarios
Best case
If commercial transits surge back above roughly 60 per day for a full week by late November or December, Yes rises to about 20%.
Most likely
Most likely traffic stays well below the needed pace through December, with Yes around 2%.
Worst case
If attacks and vessel avoidance continue through December with PortWatch still showing single-digit or low-double-digit counts, Yes falls to about 1%.
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