Elon Musk # tweets November 12 - November 14, 2026?
Leaning No: the market already prices a low under-40 chance, and Musk has at least two qualifying main-feed posts on November 12 with no verified tracker total yet showing he stayed below 40.
Analysis
On November 12, 2026, Musk already had at least one repost and one other qualifying main-feed post, but there is still no verified XTracker total for this window. That matters because the market is being decided by the tracker count, not just visible activity.
Arguments
For
- Only main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count, so some visible activity may not add to the total.
- If November 13 and early November 14 are quiet, the window can still finish below 40.
Against
- Musk is posting enough that reaching 40 across a roughly 48-hour window looks more likely than not.
- Recent market context around the same period suggested a sizable chance of totals above the under-40 cutoff.
Key drivers
- Confirmed qualifying activity on November 12 already puts some early count on the board.
- The surrounding market context points to elevated posting volume, which makes staying under 40 harder.
Risk factors
- The tracker count is still unverified, so the true total could be closer to the threshold than the visible posts suggest.
- A lull from late November 13 through November 14 morning would keep the final count under 40.
Scenarios
Best case
If the tracker shows only a small number of counted posts on November 13 and the morning of November 14, Yes rises to about 28%.
Most likely
Most likely Musk finishes above 40 by the November 14 noon ET cutoff, with Yes around 12%.
Worst case
If Musk keeps posting through November 14 morning and the tracker captures a steady stream of reposts or main-feed posts, Yes falls to about 6%.
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