Jensen Huang resigned or removed & Nvidia above $4T end of 2026?
Leaning No: the board is still only considering an ouster as of November 12, 2026, and Nvidia’s $4 trillion-plus valuation has already slipped close enough to the line that a year-end close above it is far from secure.
Analysis
November 12, 2026 is the freshest key date: Reuters said the board was meeting about whether to oust Huang, but there is still no qualifying official resignation or removal announcement. That keeps the first condition unresolved even as it looks more plausible than it did a week ago.
On the market-cap side, Nvidia closed around $4.1 trillion on November 12, but that is only a thin cushion after a sharp selloff and an intraday dip below $4 trillion on November 10. Because Yes needs both events, the combined path is harder than the headline odds on Huang alone suggest.
Arguments
For
- The November 12 reporting that the board is meeting about ousting Huang makes a qualifying departure more plausible than before.
- The stock has already shown it can move below $4 trillion on a bad day, so the valuation condition is not locked in.
- If leadership turmoil escalates, both conditions could line up quickly.
Against
- The latest official board statement still backed Huang and did not announce any departure.
- Nvidia’s market cap is still around $4.1 trillion, so it only needs to avoid a relatively modest slide by year-end.
- No named successor is in place, which may make the board less likely to force an abrupt removal.
Key drivers
- A formal board or company announcement removing or accepting Huang’s departure would satisfy the first condition immediately.
- Nvidia remains near the $4 trillion threshold, so a modest further drawdown could leave the year-end close below the cutoff.
Risk factors
- The board may stop at an investigation or governance overhaul without a qualifying resignation or removal announcement.
- A rebound in AI sentiment or year-end strength could keep Nvidia above $4 trillion despite the recent selloff.
Scenarios
Best case
If the board publicly announces Huang will resign or be removed before year-end 2026, and the stock holds above $4 trillion into the final trading day, Yes rises to about 60%.
Most likely
Most likely, the board process drags on without a qualifying departure announcement and Nvidia finishes near but not cleanly above the threshold, with Yes around 30%.
Worst case
If the board issues only a support statement and Nvidia closes the final trading day of 2026 below $4 trillion, Yes falls to about 5%.
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