Bitcoin above ___ on November 18?
No edge, the market looks right: Bitcoin was still around $73,607 on November 12, which leaves a large cushion above $64,000 with only six days left.
Analysis
On November 12, Bitcoin was around $73,607, still well above the $64,000 line that matters for the November 18 noon-ET Binance candle. That gap is large enough that a collapse of more than 13% would be needed in less than a week.
Arguments
For
- Bitcoin at about $73,607 on November 12 is roughly 15% above the threshold.
- There are only six days left, so the market has limited time to fall far enough to cross below $64,000.
- Even with bearish flows, the price has stayed near the 200-day average rather than breaking down sharply.
Against
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have had multiple days of outflows, showing sustained institutional selling pressure.
- Hotter inflation and higher expected Fed tightening can weigh on risk assets and push Bitcoin lower.
- Technical commentary warns that losing the $74,400 to $75,000 zone could lead to further downside.
Risk factors
- Persistent ETF outflows could extend and accelerate selling pressure before November 18.
- A break below the $74,400 to $75,000 support area could trigger a faster move downward than current pricing assumes.
Scenarios
Best case
If ETF outflows reverse and Bitcoin reclaims the mid-$76,000s before November 18, Yes rises to about 99%.
Most likely
Most likely Bitcoin stays above $64,000 through the November 18 noon-ET candle, with Yes around 98%.
Worst case
If Bitcoin breaks the $74,400 to $75,000 support area and sells off toward the upper $60,000s before November 18, Yes falls to about 85%.
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