Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Leaning No: the market is very high, but the December 8–9 decision is still not locked in, and the October pause plus Bostic’s call for more information leave a real path to a pause or other outcome.
Analysis
As of November 12, 2026, the last FOMC meeting on October 28 was a pause, not a hike, and the December 8–9 meeting is the only remaining decider for Hike–Pause–Hike. Recent inflation data has pushed expectations toward another hike, but it has not eliminated policy hesitation.
A 25-basis-point hike looks more likely than not, with Waller and Hammack still openly favoring tightening and the Reuters poll showing broad economist support. Still, the market’s 95.3% implies near-certainty, which feels a bit too strong given the 10–2 October vote and the possibility that officials wait for more data before moving again.
Arguments
For
- Waller has publicly backed a 25-basis-point December increase, which is important because he is a voting member.
- The latest inflation report broadened the case for more tightening and made a December hike look like the default outcome.
- The Reuters economist poll found all 101 respondents expected a December hike, which reinforces the consensus view.
Against
- Bostic said he wanted more information before further rate changes, signaling that not every voter is ready to move again.
- The October vote was only 10–2, so the committee is not unanimously aligned behind another hike.
- A stronger-than-expected shift in labor or financial conditions before December could still justify a pause.
Key drivers
- Recent October inflation came in hotter than expected, which strengthens the case for a December hike.
- Two recent FOMC dissents for a hike show there is still active internal support for tightening.
Risk factors
- The October 28 pause shows the committee is still willing to wait, so December is not automatic.
- If officials judge the September hike has not fully worked through the economy, they could hold again.
Scenarios
Best case
If the December 8–9 FOMC statement delivers a 25-basis-point hike, Yes rises to about 97%.
Most likely
Most likely the Fed hikes by 25 basis points on December 8–9, with Yes around 93%.
Worst case
If the December 8–9 FOMC meeting holds rates steady again or cuts, Yes falls to about 1%.
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