Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

No edge: Bitcoin is still well above the $70,000 line, but ETF outflows and weak technicals raise downside risk. That supports a probability just below the market's 82%.

No edge, the market looks right: Bitcoin is still around $71K to $74K, so it would need another sharp drop to get below $68,000 by November 13 noon ET.

Leaning No: the board is still only considering an ouster as of November 12, 2026, and Nvidia’s $4 trillion-plus valuation has already slipped close enough to the line that a year-end close above it is far from secure.