Edges for Sep 13, 2026

Spider-Man: Brand New Day finishing below 940m domestic by September 30 looks overwhelmingly likely. The threshold is so high that only an extreme, record-breaking performance would threaten it.

2026 is more likely than not to fall short of being the single hottest year on record. The market appears to be pricing in a continuation of extreme global warmth, but the odds still favor at least one other year, especially 2024 or 2025, finishing hotter on the NASA index.

I estimate Barron Trump’s chance of receiving a presidential pardon before January 21, 2029 at very low, around 4%. Absent a specific federal criminal exposure or public controversy, there is little reason to expect a pardon for a private family member.

I think Alito is materially less likely than the market to resign during Trump’s term. His public denial of retirement rumors, the absence of any confirmed intent to step down, and the strong incentives for justices to remain on the Court all point to a low-to-moderate probability rather than a coin flip-plus event.

Robinhood has been growing funded customers steadily, and crossing 30.2 million in 2026 looks more likely than not if recent momentum persists. I make it a moderate favorite, above the market’s implied probability.

Elon Musk is active enough on X that staying under 40 counted posts over a 48-hour window is possible but not the default outcome. The market’s current pricing looks reasonable, with a modest lean toward more than 40 posts rather than fewer.

I think impeachment is closer to a coin flip than the market suggests, with meaningful upside only if Democrats win the House in 2026 and choose to make impeachment a priority. My independent probability is 48%, well below the current market price of 66%.

I think a U.S. acquisition of any part of Greenland before 2029 is very unlikely. The most plausible paths are diplomatic noise or expanded military access, not an actual transfer of sovereignty or territorial control.

Democrats look likelier than Republicans to win control of the House, but the market is pricing in a fairly confident outcome that still depends on a narrow set of competitive districts breaking their way. I would put the chance of a Democratic House at 73%.

I think a Trump resignation before the end of this term is possible but still unlikely, with a materially lower probability than the market implies. My independent estimate is 8%, reflecting the historical rarity of presidential resignations and the absence of any concrete evidence that resignation is imminent.

A U.S. reassertion of control over the Panama Canal during Trump’s term is extremely unlikely. I put the chance materially below the market, because rhetoric is cheap and any literal transfer of sovereignty would face enormous legal, diplomatic, and military barriers.

I գնահատ/assess the chance that Trump secures any actual purchase of Greenland, even a partial one, as very low. The most plausible outcome is continued rhetoric, bargaining, or expanded U.S. access short of a territorial sale.

I make this a low-probability but not negligible yes, around 27%. Trump’s baseline instinct is restriction, but business pressure and the need to keep the U.S. attractive for high-skill labor make some form of expansion or loosening plausible.

Boeing has a plausible path to more than 640 deliveries in 2026, but it still needs a clean second half and no meaningful production or supply-chain setbacks. My independent estimate is 58%, a bit below the market’s 68% because the threshold is ambitious rather than routine.

USAID has a real chance of being effectively dismantled or folded into another entity during Trump’s term, but formal elimination still faces major legal and congressional hurdles. I put the chance higher than the market, but not above a coin flip.

The chance of the United States acquiring any part of Canada before 2029 is extremely low. Even allowing for political volatility and rhetoric, a territorial transfer would require an extraordinary collapse in Canadian sovereignty and would face overwhelming legal, diplomatic, and military barriers.

A 2027 recession looks meaningfully possible, but not the base case. I would price Yes at 32%, above the market’s 22% because the time horizon is long enough for a slowdown to emerge even without an obvious current trigger.

Erling Haaland has a strong path to the Top 5 because he remains one of the most globally recognized athletes in the world and football tends to dominate Google’s year-end athlete searches. I think the market is slightly high, but the Yes outcome is still more likely than not.

I think the Fed is still more likely than not to avoid any rate cuts in 2026, but the remaining meetings leave a meaningful tail risk of a late-year cut. The market is very confident on zero cuts, and I am a bit less bullish than that, though still strongly in the Yes camp.

I think a U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump’s term remains extremely unlikely, so the no-acquisition outcome is materially more likely than the market implies. The most probable result is continued rhetoric, strategic cooperation, or perhaps some expanded U.S. presence, not a formal transfer of sovereignty.

Andrew Oldham is a plausible longlist candidate, but the absence of a Supreme Court vacancy and the lack of any nomination signal make him a relatively low-probability outcome. I put his independent chance well below the market’s 23%, with other contenders like Neomi Rao and James Ho looking at least as plausible on the limited facts provided.

I think the market is pricing this too low. Even without a precise definition of “bear case,” Trump faces enough legal, political, and reputational downside in 2026 that the chance of a clearly unfavorable year looks closer to the low teens than to 4%.

The Daily Show has a real path to winning, but the new Emmy voting structure and strong rival support make this far from the most likely outcome. I rate its chances meaningfully above the market price, but still well below even money.

The Gentlemen: Season 2 has a plausible path to finishing second, but the market is probably a bit too optimistic given how competitive Netflix weekly rankings usually are. I would lean slightly toward No, with the show closer to a coin flip than a clear favorite.

A direct U.S. invasion of Iran before the end of 2026 looks very unlikely. The market’s implied probability is already low, but the threshold for this event is so high that I would price it even lower, at about 9%.

United Russia is still the clear favorite to finish with the largest seat gain, but the question is slightly trickier than a simple win because it is about net seats gained rather than total seats won. Even so, Russia’s managed electoral environment and the party’s structural advantages make a United Russia plurality of seat gains more likely than not.

I think there is a moderate-to-high chance that Variational’s token clears an $800M FDV one day after launch, but the lack of concrete launch details and the difficulty of sustaining a strong post-launch price keep this from being a near-certain outcome. My estimate is slightly below the current market price because the threshold is demanding and early token valuations often fade quickly after listing.

I put the chance of Trump being impeached and removed from office before his term ends at 7%. Impeachment is plausible under severe political or legal turmoil, but actual removal requires an extraordinary collapse in Republican support that has historically been very rare.

I think Trump invoking the Insurrection Act during this presidency is more plausible than the market implies, but still far from a majority outcome. My independent estimate is 24%, reflecting a real but limited chance of a major domestic unrest or immigration-related crisis that he treats as justification.

Scottie Scheffler is good enough to complete the career grand slam, but the timeline is tight and he still needs to convert at least one of the two toughest remaining majors. I make this a low-probability yes, but meaningfully above the market’s 5% implied price.

My independent estimate is that the chance Elon Musk personally visits Mars before Aug. 1, 2099 is quite low, around 4%. The market’s 10% looks too optimistic given the combined hurdles of survival, health, mission readiness, and the fact that this requires Musk himself to be aboard a successful Mars flight.

BbY WOW has a solid chance to hold the #2 spot, but the market is probably a bit too confident given how volatile Spotify weekly rankings can be. I would price Yes below the current market, at about 63%.

Ethereum reaching $3,000 by the end of 2026 looks slightly more likely than not. The market is already leaning Yes, and the threshold is not especially demanding if ETH remains near current cycle levels or sees even a moderate recovery over the next several months.

Scott Jennings has a plausible path because he is a polished Trump-friendly communicator, but he still looks less likely than several more tightly embedded loyalists. I would price his chance materially below the market, around 14%.

I think there is a meaningful but still minority chance that Section 4 of the 25th Amendment gets invoked during Trump’s presidency. The most likely outcome remains that it is not used, but the probability is higher than a trivial long shot because the mechanism can be triggered by acute incapacity, not just permanent removal.

I think the chance is low, but not as low as a pure “it never happens” framing would suggest. A new state before Trump leaves office would require a major legislative breakthrough on an issue that has been stalled for decades, so my independent estimate is 6%.

The market is already pricing in a very high chance of a 2026 Fed hike, and that level is broadly plausible given there are still several meetings left in the year. I would still lean slightly below the market, because the Fed usually needs a clear inflation or growth surprise to actually move rates upward, and none is confirmed in the provided context.

Anthropic is still the likeliest name to be on top at the end of September, but the market looks a bit too confident given how quickly leaderboard positions can change. I would price Yes at 91%, with the main uncertainty coming from a late-month jump by OpenAI or Google.

Solana has a meaningful but not dominant chance to touch $140 before the end of 2026. With only a few months left, the outcome depends heavily on broad crypto risk appetite and whether Solana can sustain a strong rally from current levels.

Google has a real path to ending 2026 with the top Arena model, but the market is rational to favor the field because leadership at the top of LLM rankings changes frequently and OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI all have credible chances. I think Google is somewhat more likely than the current price implies, but still clearly not the favorite.

Pete Hegseth is still the most plausible next Cabinet exit, but the odds look only moderately above the market, not overwhelming. The evidence shows real internal strain and political vulnerability, yet not a clear firing or resignation path.

The market is strongly favoring a sub-32 million opening, and that looks directionally reasonable given the limited downside needed for a Yes result and the absence of any clear signal that this title is tracking like a major blockbuster launch. I think Yes is very likely, though not quite as certain as the market implies because a strong nostalgia-driven debut could still push it into the low-to-mid 30s.

A rate cut in October looks possible but not the base case. The Bank of Israel has already begun easing, yet the current messaging and surrounding uncertainty still make a pause more likely than another immediate cut.

Gavin Newsom is a credible but far from dominant contender for the 2028 Democratic nomination. His national profile and fundraising ability keep him in the mix, but the field is likely to be crowded and he faces significant competition from younger, less polarizing alternatives.

Arsenal look like a legitimate title contender, but winning the 2026-27 Premier League still requires outperforming at least one or two elite rivals across a long, volatile season. I would price Yes slightly below the market at 55%.

NVIDIA is the market favorite and has a strong path to finishing 2026 as the largest company, but the gap is still vulnerable to valuation swings and any reversal in AI enthusiasm. I would price Yes slightly below the market at 70%.

I think a move to a new Illinois location is somewhat more likely than not, but not as close to certain as the market implies. The most plausible path is a stadium/land deal somewhere in suburban Illinois, though timing and financing remain the main obstacles.

I think a murder conviction is possible but still unlikely by the end of 2026. The market’s low price makes sense because timing, competency issues, and the possibility of a resolution short of conviction all remain meaningful barriers.

I put the chance of Trump’s 2026 “bull case” at 7%, modestly above the market’s 3.4% but still clearly a long shot. The main reason is that even in a favorable political environment, a broad, all-in “dream year” outcome is hard to fully realize within a single year.

Infantino is under real political pressure, but the evidence points more toward a bruised reelection campaign than an imminent exit before year-end. I think the chance he is out as FIFA president by December 31 is below the market price, around 12%.

A >5% quarterly GDP print sometime from Q1 2025 through Q4 2028 is plausible but not likely enough to be a lock; I estimate about 30%. The market’s 23.3% looks a bit low, but not wildly off given how hard sustained 5%-plus U.S. growth is to achieve.

I think the Department of Education is somewhat more likely than the market implies to be eliminated by January 20, 2029, but it remains a low-probability event because full abolition requires durable congressional and legal follow-through. My independent estimate is 18%.

I think the most likely 2035 outcome is a moderate-growth year centered around 2% to 2.5% real GDP growth, with recession-risk tails still material but not dominant. My independent view is modestly more optimistic than the market on the upper-middle growth bands.

I think the market is pricing the right side strongly, but the threshold is so high that a sub-2.2 million rial print is still plausible. My estimate is a modest Yes chance of 18%.