Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

On the facts provided, there is no affirmative evidence that Andrew Oldham is being selected, vetted, or nominated for a Supreme Court seat. The most important structural point is that the Court currently has no vacancy, which means Oldham cannot actually become the next justice unless a seat opens and a president chooses him over a range of alternatives. In that setting, even a prominent appellate judge with conservative credentials starts from a low base rate, because the event depends on multiple contingent political steps that have not yet begun to materialize.

Oldham does have the kind of résumé that keeps him in the conversation: he is visible, ideologically aligned with the conservative legal movement, and active in high-profile opinions and dissents that can reinforce his profile among Republican legal elites. But the same is true, to varying degrees, for several other names in the market, and nothing in the supplied news suggests Oldham has a special edge over them. If a vacancy emerges, the decision will likely turn on presidential preferences, Senate confirmability, and campaign-level politics rather than just judicial prominence, which makes the field much more fluid than the current ranking implies.

Relative to the market price of 23%, I think the market is a bit too confident in Oldham specifically. The pricing appears to be leaning on his visibility and the fact that he is a familiar, credible Supreme Court-style conservative, but it is underweighting the simple reality that there is no vacancy and no nomination path in motion. In a multi-candidate contest like this, I would spread more of the probability toward other plausible ideological and political fits rather than anchor on Oldham as the favorite.