Will Trump resign during his term?

A presidential resignation is an extreme outcome that usually requires a major health crisis, an unavoidable legal or political collapse, or a personal decision that the office has become untenable. Trump has shown a historically high tolerance for conflict, strong incentive to remain in office, and no clear pattern of voluntarily stepping aside under pressure. In the absence of specific triggering news, the base rate for resignation is very low, and that should anchor the estimate well below double digits.

The main reasons to allow for some probability are age, the possibility of a severe health event, and the chance that an unexpected legal or political development could create a uniquely coercive situation. Trump is also a nontraditional president whose behavior can be harder to forecast than that of more conventional officeholders. Still, resignation would be a highly surprising move for someone who has consistently framed political survival as central to his identity and has historically preferred combat over concession.

The market’s 22% Yes price looks rich relative to the historical base rate and the current lack of a concrete catalyst. That price may be reflecting generalized uncertainty around Trump’s age, legal exposure, and unpredictability rather than evidence of a specific resignation pathway. Those are real risks, but they are more likely to produce controversy, incapacitation claims, or political bargaining than an actual voluntary resignation, so I think the market is overestimating the odds.