Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

The threshold here is not just impeachment but impeachment and removal, which makes the event much harder than a standard political scandal forecast. Even if House leadership changes or a major controversy emerges, removal from office would require a two-thirds Senate vote, meaning a large fraction of the president’s own party would need to defect. That has almost never happened in modern U.S. politics, and it is especially difficult when the president remains a central figure in his party and when partisanship is intense.

There is still a real nonzero path to Yes. Trump has a long record of generating investigations, intra-party conflict, and legal jeopardy, and a severe enough event could trigger impeachment proceedings if Democrats control the House or if a bipartisan breakaway coalition forms. But the bar for removal is much higher than the bar for impeachment, and the Senate arithmetic is the main obstacle. A president can be impeached with one-party control and then still survive if the opposing party closes ranks, which is the most likely outcome here.

The market at 15% appears somewhat aggressive relative to the institutional hurdles. Markets may be pricing in a tail-risk scenario where a major scandal, health issue, or constitutional crisis creates unusual bipartisan alignment, but absent that kind of shock, removal is extremely unlikely. My estimate is meaningfully below the market because impeachment is possible while impeachment and removal together remain a low-probability, high-bar outcome over the remaining term.