Edges for Sep 5, 2026

I think Starbucks is materially more likely than not to report more than 41,800 global stores in 2026. The market appears to be pricing in a slowdown that is possible, but the threshold is low enough relative to Starbucks’ historical footprint growth that Yes should be favored.

I think Yes is substantially more likely than the market implies, because multiple reports indicate USAID has already been dismantled in practice. The main uncertainty is whether the market resolves on formal legal abolition or on operational elimination, but the balance of evidence still favors Yes.

My independent estimate is that Barron Trump is unlikely to receive a presidential pardon by Jan. 21, 2029. A pardon would require either an actual prosecutorial risk or an extraordinary political/ family circumstance, both of which look uncommon for someone with no public indication of legal jeopardy.

Samuel Alito is more likely than not to remain on the Court through the end of Trump’s term. The explicit reporting that he is not expected to retire, combined with the absence of any health or succession signal, makes a resignation look meaningfully less likely than the market price implies.

I think the bear case for Trump has a meaningfully better than even chance of showing up in 2026 if it is defined as a sustained cluster of legal, political, and economic setbacks. The market’s 5% Yes price looks far too low for such a broad and already-developing narrative.

United Russia is very likely to gain the most seats again, and the main question is margin rather than whether it stays first. The only meaningful downside is an unusually sharp performance collapse or an unexpected seat-allocation quirk, both of which look unlikely.

I think a 2026 Fed rate hike is somewhat less likely than the market implies, but still very plausible if inflation proves sticky or growth stays too strong. My estimate is that Yes is just under even odds.

I put the chance of the United States acquiring any part of Greenland before 2029 at very low, around 4%. The political, legal, and diplomatic barriers are extreme, and there is little evidence that Denmark or Greenland would entertain a territorial transfer.

I make this a meaningful but far from likely possibility: Trump has enough avenues for visible wins, agenda-setting, and selective court or administrative successes that a “bull case” year is plausible. Still, the legal environment is hostile enough that a broad, durable triumph looks more like an exception than the base case.

Arsenal are a credible title contender, but winning the 2026-27 Premier League still looks meaningfully less likely than not. I would price Yes at 28%, reflecting strong contender status without enough edge over the field to justify near-fifty-fifty odds.

Boeing can plausibly get back into the low-600s if 737 MAX output rises steadily and 787 deliveries remain strong, but clearing 620 looks more like an aggressive upside case than the base case. I would price this closer to the high-50s than the high-70s.

A literal U.S. “take back” of the Panama Canal is very unlikely, with the most realistic path being heightened pressure, threats, or negotiations rather than a transfer of sovereignty. I would put the probability of a Yes outcome at 8%.

Anthropic looks more likely than OpenAI to be the first to go public, but the current market looks too confident given how fluid both timelines remain. I would price the Yes outcome at 79%, not 94%.

I put the chance of a U.S. recession in 2027 at 41%. The market’s 26% looks too low given the age of the expansion risk, policy uncertainty, and the fact that recessions are still the default downside outcome over a two-year horizon.

I put the probability of Trump invoking the Insurrection Act at 31%. The market looks somewhat too skeptical given his past willingness to test domestic-use-of-force limits, though the legal and political hurdles still make this a minority outcome.

I think the chance that U.S. unemployment reaches at least 5.0% at any point in 2026 is well below one-third, but not as low as the market price suggests. The most likely outcome is that labor market cooling continues without a full rise to 5.0%, though a sharper slowdown or negative shock could still push it over the threshold.

I գնահատestimate a low single-digit chance that Trump resigns before his term ends, far below the market price. Resignation by a sitting president is historically rare, and Trump’s personal and political incentives strongly favor staying in office unless he is forced out by an extraordinary health or legal crisis.

Scottie Scheffler has a real but still modest chance to complete the career grand slam before 2028. His elite baseline skill makes the market’s 5% feel too low, but the task remains difficult because he still needs to capture at least two specific majors in a short window.

Robinhood has a plausible path to clearing 30.2 million funded customers in 2026, but it still needs another solid year of net additions. I գնահատ estimate the Yes outcome at 40%, meaning the market looks somewhat pessimistic but not wildly off.

I assess the chance that the United States acquires any part of Canada before 2029 as very low, but not zero. The most plausible path is some extraordinary territorial transfer or crisis-driven control arrangement, not a normal diplomatic outcome.

I think the chance that Trump buys Greenland, even partially, is very low. The market’s 19% Yes price looks materially too high given the diplomatic, legal, and practical barriers to any territorial purchase.

Pete Hegseth looks like one of the more vulnerable Cabinet members, but not the single most likely to be next out. I make the chance he is the next departure meaningfully above the market, driven by the exposure and volatility of his post, though RFK Jr. remains a very serious rival for the first exit.

Ethereum reaching $3,000 by the end of 2026 looks slightly more likely than not. The market is already leaning Yes, and the threshold is not especially demanding if ETH is anywhere near a normal mid-cycle trading range or experiences even a modest rally.

Ulf Kristersson has a credible path to remain Prime Minister, but the election is likely to be highly competitive and his governing bloc does not look secure enough for a clear favorite status. I would price him at a meaningfully lower chance than a coin flip, but somewhat above the current market-implied level.

A U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump’s term still looks extraordinarily unlikely, so the best estimate is a very high probability that no acquisition happens. The market’s 85% for no acquisition appears somewhat low, with most of the remaining probability concentrated in implausibly large purchase ranges.

Trump is more likely than not to keep the H-1B program constrained, but a targeted expansion or loosening is plausible if business and tech lobbying becomes politically useful. I put the chance of some meaningful expansion during his term modestly above the market.

Trump is quite likely to use some version of “Democrat” repeatedly in a partisan convention speech, but clearing the 25-plus threshold is still a fairly demanding bar. I make it a modest Yes, slightly below the market price.

NVIDIA has a strong path to finishing 2026 as the world’s largest company, but the lead is not secure enough to justify near-certainty. I would price this somewhat below the market, with Yes still the more likely outcome.

Anna Kelly looks like a live contender because an internal promotion is the most natural path if the role turns over. I make her a bit more likely than the market does, but not a dominant favorite because Trump-world personnel choices can still swing toward a more visible television or political surrogate.

I make relocation within Illinois somewhat more likely than not, but not a lock. The market is pricing the Illinois option and the no-relocation outcome almost evenly; I think Illinois still has the edge, mainly because a move to a nearby Illinois site is the most practical and politically feasible path if the team proceeds at all.

A third impeachment attempt is meaningfully plausible, but the market looks too confident that it will happen. I estimate about a 58% chance that Trump is impeached before the end of the term, with the main uncertainty being House control and whether a sufficiently serious scandal or constitutional clash emerges.

I think the market is too pessimistic on U.S. real GDP growth in 2035. My base case is still moderate positive growth centered around the 1.6% to 2.5% bands, with a meaningful but smaller chance of either weak growth or an upside surprise.

New Hampshire is still the likeliest answer, but the market is a bit too confident because the Democratic calendar is now more exposed to party-rule changes and national bargaining than in the past. I make New Hampshire a strong favorite, just not as close to a lock as 79% implies.

Keith Sonderling remains the clear frontrunner because he is the only Labor-specific name in the supplied news flow and is already being described as acting Labor Secretary. I think the market is directionally right, but a little too confident given the lack of a clean, official nomination announcement.

The Liberals are close enough to Sweden’s parliamentary threshold that they still have a meaningful chance of winning seats, but the risk of falling short is real. I would price Yes slightly above the market, mainly because even a modest rebound or constituency-based path could keep them in the Riksdag.

Bitcoin reaching $100,000 sometime in September is possible but still a low-probability event. The market’s 6.7% implied chance looks reasonable, though I would put it slightly higher given Bitcoin’s history of sharp momentum moves.

I estimate a roughly one-in-three chance that at least one quarter from Q1 2025 through Q4 2028 prints above 5% annualized real GDP growth. The market looks a bit too pessimistic because a single outsized quarter can happen even when the underlying trend is only mediocre, especially with AI-driven capital spending and volatile inventory effects.

I think the most likely 2032 U.S. real GDP growth outcome is centered in the low-to-mid 2% range, with a meaningful chance of a softer 1% to 2% result and a smaller but nontrivial tail for recessionary or very strong-growth outcomes. My independent view is modestly more optimistic than the market’s binary pricing, but still far from implying a boom.

A Fed hike-pause-hike sequence over the next three meetings looks extremely unlikely. The market’s 7% Yes price is already close to the upper end of a plausible estimate, and I would still lean below that because the Fed usually needs a clear inflation reacceleration to deliver even one hike, let alone two with only a single pause in between.

I slightly lean toward a rate cut, but only modestly. The market is already pricing a meaningful chance of easing, and the Bank of Russia is the kind of central bank that will cut if disinflation and softer growth are clearly established, though it often waits for convincing confirmation.

I think the chance of another Bank of Israel cut in October is somewhat below one-third. Low inflation and an easing bias support a further reduction, but the close proximity to the election and the bank’s recent run of cuts make a pause slightly more likely than another cut.

Gavin Newsom is a plausible early frontrunner for the 2028 Democratic nomination, but the field is likely to be crowded and the party often prefers a candidate who can broaden the coalition beyond California politics. The market’s implied probability looks a bit low for a high-profile national figure, but the race still feels more unlikely than likely at this stage.

Marine Le Pen remains a serious contender, but the combination of runoff dynamics, broad anti-Le Pen coordination, and legal uncertainty makes a win more likely than not to fall short. I estimate her chances at 30%, modestly below the current market price.

Zcash reaching $700 before the end of 2026 looks possible but still unlikely. The market is pricing a meaningful upside tail, but the move required is large enough that I would lean No overall.

I lean slightly toward No, but the market is close enough that a completed 14-day pause remains plausible if there has been no qualifying US strike on Iran in the past two weeks. With no fresh news available, I give Yes a meaningful but sub-coinflip chance.

China overtaking the US in nominal GDP by 2030 looks unlikely, though not impossible if China sustains stronger real growth and the renminbi avoids further weakness. My independent estimate is below the market price, at about 13%.

Mbappé has a real but limited path to the 2026 Ballon d’Or, because he is always in the elite tier and a strong late-season run or major international success could vault him into contention. Still, the market is probably right that the most likely outcome is No, since the award usually goes to the player tied to the biggest trophies and signature narrative of the year.

The regime falling by the end of 2026 looks unlikely, though not impossible, because the Islamic Republic still has durable coercive institutions, elite cohesion incentives, and no visible collapse signal strong enough to justify a high probability. I would place the chance of Yes well below one in five and somewhat above the market price only if external shocks or internal succession crises intensify.

The market’s 14.5% Yes price looks plausible, but I lean slightly above it because a bipartisan crypto market-structure bill still has a realistic path if Congress prioritizes it in the remaining session. Still, enactment by year-end 2026 remains a low-probability outcome because the bill must clear both chambers, survive conference differences, and reach the President on a tight calendar.

The market is already pricing in a high chance that Predict.fun launches a token with an FDV above $50M on the first full day after launch, and that looks directionally reasonable. I think the Yes side is favored, but the threshold is high enough that a weak launch, limited liquidity, or post-launch sell pressure still leaves some meaningful downside.

Newcastle look slightly more likely to win than the market price suggests, mainly because of home advantage and a generally stronger baseline profile. Still, without current team news, the edge is modest rather than decisive.

Brighton look slightly more likely to win than not, helped by home advantage and the pre-match consensus leaning their way. Still, the market is close to a coin flip, so this is a modest edge rather than a strong conviction.

An emergency Fed rate cut before the end of 2026 looks unlikely, but not impossible. The market’s low price is reasonable because the Fed usually prefers to move at scheduled meetings unless there is a true financial-stability shock or a sudden economic collapse.

I assign a modest chance that Elon Musk personally visits Mars before Aug. 1, 2099, but it remains a highly speculative outcome. The main reason it is not near zero is that he has both the motive and the resources to push for a Mars mission, yet the specific personal-trip requirement makes this far harder than a generic Mars landing.

South Korea’s December 2026 CPI inflation will most likely remain above 1.5%, though the threshold is not impossible if disinflation broadens quickly into the winter months. The market’s low Yes price looks broadly reasonable, but I see a somewhat higher chance of Yes than the current price implies.