Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
Pete Hegseth looks like one of the more vulnerable Cabinet members, but not the single most likely to be next out. I make the chance he is the next departure meaningfully above the market, driven by the exposure and volatility of his post, though RFK Jr. remains a very serious rival for the first exit.
Analysis
Hegseth occupies one of the highest-friction seats in the administration: Defense is politically sensitive, operationally unforgiving, and constantly exposed to scandal, policy failure, and intramural White House blame-shifting. A Cabinet secretary in that role does not need to be universally disliked to become the next departure; he only needs one major controversy, a poor public explanation, or a sustained loss of confidence from Trump and key allies. That structural vulnerability makes him a credible front-runner in a crowded field of possible exits.
The main reason to resist making him a huge favorite is that Trump often keeps loyal, combative figures longer than outsiders expect, especially when they are useful as symbols of toughness or culture-war credibility. Hegseth’s profile may actually buy him some protection if Trump sees him as aligned with the base. At the same time, RFK Jr. is a close alternative for first departure because his policy instincts can collide with both establishment Republicans and the broader administrative machinery, while Brooke Rollins and Howard Lutnick are lower-drama but still replaceable if Trump wants a reset.
Compared with the market’s 20% price, I think Hegseth is somewhat undervalued, but not dramatically so. The market appears to recognize the real risk while still giving room for the possibility that a more politically fraught or operationally problematic secretary leaves first. My estimate puts Hegseth ahead of the field, but only modestly, because the event is fundamentally about sequencing under uncertainty rather than just overall cabinet weakness.
Arguments
For
- Hegseth holds a highly visible and politically exposed Cabinet portfolio, which makes him a frequent target for pressure and blame.
- His confirmation and tenure are likely to remain controversial, increasing the odds that a future incident becomes the tipping point.
Against
- Trump often rewards loyalty and combativeness, which can protect controversial appointees longer than the market expects.
- RFK Jr. and other top contenders may have stronger internal reasons to leave first if policy friction or performance issues escalate.
Key drivers
- Defense is a high-pressure post where a single serious controversy can quickly turn into a forced exit.
- Trump’s tendency to tolerate loyal, headline-grabbing officials can delay removal even when the role is under strain.
Risk factors
- RFK Jr. may be a more natural first departure if ideological clashes or implementation problems intensify.
- A lack of new scandal or a strong display of loyalty could let Hegseth survive long enough for another secretary to exit first.
Scenarios
Best case
Hegseth stays in place through the next major cabinet turnover, with Trump preferring continuity and loyalty over a disruptive replacement.
Most likely
Hegseth remains a top vulnerability but is edged out by another high-conflict figure, with RFK Jr. the closest competitor for first exit.
Worst case
A major controversy, performance failure, or internal conflict forces Hegseth out before any of the other leading contenders.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 29% | 20% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 27% | 17% |
| Brooke Rollins | 16% | 15% |
| Markwayne Mullin | 11% | 10% |
| Howard Lutnick | 9% | 9% |
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