Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

The cleanest read from the available information is that there is no active retirement signal. The most directly relevant report says Alito is not expected to retire this term, and the surrounding context does not show the usual precursors to a Supreme Court departure such as declining health, a public hint, or a clear timing rationale. He is still participating in major cases and making public financial disclosures, which is more consistent with a justice expecting to continue serving than one preparing an exit.

Historically, justices often leave for personal, health, or strategic reasons, but strategic retirements usually come with some visible planning or at least credible sourcing pointing that way. Alito has every incentive to remain on the bench if he wants to preserve his influence during a presidency that could shape the Court’s direction, and the current reporting suggests he is not currently leaning toward retirement. At age 76, resignation is plausible over a multi-year window, but plausibility is not the same as probability, and nothing in the provided material points to imminent action.

The market’s 69% yes price looks too aggressive given the evidence. I would expect a materially lower price unless there is private information not reflected in the public reporting, because the public record here is mostly negative for a resignation thesis. The market may be extrapolating from age and the length of the term rather than from any concrete retirement indicator, which would overstate the likelihood of a resignation before January 2029.